Soo-eun "Q3 Exports Expected to Increase by 20% YoY"

Increase in Key Export Items Such as Semiconductors, Automobiles, and Petrochemicals

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Jin-ho] The Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute forecasted that exports in the third quarter of this year will increase by around 20% compared to the same period last year, reaching $157 billion.

In the '2021 Q2 Export Performance Evaluation and Q3 Outlook' released on the 29th, the Eximbank analyzed that the export leading index for the third quarter has risen for three consecutive quarters compared to the same period last year and has also increased for four consecutive quarters compared to the previous quarter, indicating a continued recovery in export conditions.

The export leading index is an index created to predict the degree of export increase or decrease by comprehensively considering variables affecting exports such as the economic conditions of major export destination countries, import volume for exports, industry-specific order status, and exchange rates.

The export leading index for the third quarter of this year is projected to be 131.9, with a year-on-year increase rate of 25.8%, which is the benchmark for export conditions, and a 6% rise compared to the previous quarter. Most of the indicators that make up the export leading index, such as the economic conditions of export destination countries, import volume for exports, and new manufacturing orders, are showing strong improvement, suggesting that the export growth trend will be maintained for the time being.

The export amount in the third quarter is also expected to increase by around 20% compared to the same period last year. This is due to the continued economic recovery in the United States and China, the largest export destinations. However, if the spread of COVID-19 continues strongly due to the expansion of the Delta variant, the global economic recovery may slow down, causing the export growth rate to fall short of the forecast.

An Eximbank official explained, "Due to the recovery of the economies of major export destination countries such as China and the United States, driven by expanded vaccination, increased corporate investment, and recovery of consumer sentiment, the export growth centered on semiconductors, automobiles, and petrochemicals is expected to continue."