The Next 'Stepping Stone' Between South and North... Reduction of ROK-US Joint Exercises or Vaccine Support

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The Blue House likened the restoration of the inter-Korean communication hotline to a ‘stepping stone,’ and experts predict that the next stepping stone toward the final goals of the Korean Peninsula peace process and denuclearization, as well as the intermediate step of holding an inter-Korean summit, will be the reduction or cancellation of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises.

Professor Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University’s Department of North Korean Studies said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 29th, "One of the most important prerequisites for an inter-Korean summit is the minimization of joint military exercises." Jeong Seong-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, also analyzed, "Although a green light has been given for holding an inter-Korean video summit, there remain challenges in coordinating the South Korea-U.S. positions on the joint military exercises and overcoming differences between the two Koreas."

North Korean propaganda outlet ‘Uri Minjokkkiri’ harshly criticized the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises on the 20th, claiming that they violate the inter-Korean joint declarations and the September 19 military agreement. Even as the joint exercises approach in two weeks, the government’s stance that "the timing and scale have not yet been decided," along with the worsening COVID-19 situation within the military, adds weight to speculation about reduction or postponement.

However, since the U.S. side insists on conducting the joint exercises as scheduled, last-minute South Korea-U.S. consultations are expected to be crucial. Professor Kim forecasted, "The Biden administration also holds the position that South and North Korea should cooperate more and use those achievements as a basis to improve North Korea-U.S. relations, so it can be said that they view this issue positively." The U.S. State Department welcomed the restoration of the communication hotline, stating it "supports dialogue and communication with North Korea."

Some also foresee that cooperation in health sectors, such as COVID-19 vaccine support, could serve as the next stepping stone after restoring the communication hotline. Since North Korea distrusts Chinese-made vaccines or COVAX vaccines, support with U.S.-made vaccines like Moderna could advance inter-Korean relations. However, providing Moderna vaccines requires cold chain technology and a stable power supply to support it, which is realistically difficult under North Korea’s current conditions, posing an obstacle.

Humanitarian cooperation such as food aid and reunions of separated families is also considered one of the stepping stones. North Korea’s food situation has worsened due to the overlap of COVID-19 and heatwaves, but concerns about infection make it difficult to reach out to China. North Korea-China trade in the first half of this year decreased by as much as 84% compared to the previous year. Jeong Se-hyun, senior vice chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, said in an interview on YTN Radio’s ‘Lee Dong-hyung’s News Face-off,’ "The only party that can solve the food shortage is the South."

Regardless of which stepping stone is placed in the middle, if an inter-Korean summit is ultimately held, deciding on its format will also be important. Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "The biggest barrier to the summit is the current COVID-19 situation," adding, "It is highly likely to be held in a video format rather than face-to-face." The government plans to discuss establishing a video conferencing system with the North to enable dialogue even amid the COVID-19 situation, so the system is expected to be set up soon.

Many experts also predict that a face-to-face summit could take place around the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. Director Jeong said, "It is highly likely that both South and North Korea will send top-level or high-level delegations to Beijing," and "This could lead to a face-to-face summit or high-level talks." While the government could open a breakthrough by dispatching special envoys, the possibility seems low given North Korea’s quarantine situation. The Blue House also stated, "We are not discussing special envoys."