Possibility of Inter-Korean Summit at Beijing Winter Olympics in February Next Year... Political Circles May Stir Ahead of Presidential Election
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min, Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] The first indicator to judge the direction of inter-Korean relations after the restoration of the inter-Korean communication hotline is whether the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises will proceed as planned. The joint exercises for the second half of this year are scheduled from the 10th to the 27th of next month.
At present, there is a possibility that this plan may be canceled or significantly scaled down. Considering the schedule, a detailed training plan should have already been released, but it remains undecided. On the 28th, the Ministry of National Defense only stated, "The timing and scale have not been determined."
Previously, South Korean and U.S. soldiers completed COVID-19 vaccinations in preparation for the joint exercises. However, since inter-Korean relations have emerged as a variable, the decision to proceed with the exercises appears to fall within the realm of political judgment. In this regard, the Blue House stated, "The restoration of the communication hotline and the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises are unrelated matters," but there is speculation that some level of tacit understanding has been reached.
Jung Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, said on the radio that day, "Would they have announced the restoration of the inter-Korean communication line on the 27th without any contingency plans?" and speculated, "There must have been coordination between the White House and our National Security Office." How South Korea and the U.S. handle the issue of holding joint exercises in the future could either accelerate improvements in inter-Korean relations or lead to the exact opposite situation.
Another notable point in the Blue House's announcement of the communication hotline restoration is the fact that the South and North Korean leaders have exchanged several letters. This means that contrary to external perceptions that the inter-Korean stalemate continues, the 'thread of dialogue' has actually been maintained behind the scenes.
Kim Jun-hyung, President of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, analyzed in a radio interview that "Among the South Korea-North Korea-U.S. channels, the only one that has remained alive so far has been the channel between the leaders."
The immediate focus is whether the 4th inter-Korean summit will be realized within the remaining less than 10 months of the Moon Jae-in administration. Some in the political sphere have paid attention to the possibility of a 'virtual' summit based on the dispatch of a special envoy to North Korea, but the Blue House denies this.
A senior Blue House official denied discussions about a virtual summit and simultaneously said, "(The special envoy to North Korea) has not been discussed either. There are practical limitations under the COVID-19 conditions." This statement also suggests that the situation could change at any time depending on COVID-19. It implies that relations could be advanced under the pretext of humanitarian aid such as vaccine support or alleviating food shortages.
The Winter Olympics to be held in Beijing, China, in February next year could also be a major variable. On the 28th, Yoon Gun-young, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea and former Blue House Chief of State Affairs, responded to a radio host's question, "There is an analysis that the Beijing Winter Olympics is the right time for an inter-Korean summit," by saying, "It can be seen that way. Just like the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics created an opportunity."
The Beijing Winter Olympics will open on February 4 next year, and the presidential election is scheduled for March 9, just about a month apart. If an inter-Korean summit materializes around this time, it could become a major event attracting global attention, but the political sphere ahead of the presidential election could be greatly stirred.
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