[AKyung Poll] Minjoo Party 36.7% VS Gukhim 29.4%... Support Gap Widens

Internal Conflict Over Yoon Seok-yeol's Party Entry Affects Support
People Power Party's Approval Drops, 7.3%P Gap with Democratic Party

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] In terms of party approval ratings, the Democratic Party of Korea (Minjoo Party) continued its upward trend while the People Power Party (PPP) failed to escape a downward trend, widening the gap between the two parties compared to the previous survey. In this survey, the Minjoo Party's approval rating was ahead of the PPP beyond the margin of error. The PPP's disadvantage is analyzed to be due to internal conflicts surrounding the possible entry of Yoon Seok-yeol, a leading opposition presidential candidate and former prosecutor general. On the other hand, the Minjoo Party appears to be benefiting from the convention effect of the presidential primary, which started earlier.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 24th to 25th among 1,008 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked about the party they support or have at least some favorable impression of, 36.7% responded in favor of the Minjoo Party, higher than the PPP's 29.4%. The gap between the two parties was 7.3 percentage points, outside the margin of error. In the previous survey conducted on the 10th and 11th, the gap was 3.5 percentage points.

The Minjoo Party's approval rating rose by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous survey, while the PPP's dropped by 2.5 percentage points. Although the PPP recently started preparing for the primary by recruiting opposition presidential candidates, the timing of recruiting leading candidates such as former Prosecutor General Yoon remains uncertain. Interest in the party surged significantly after party leader Lee Jun-seok's inauguration, but the party is now returning some of the support it had gained at that time. Meanwhile, the Minjoo Party, having selected six candidates advancing to the main primary and officially entering the presidential election phase, saw increased interest in the party.

In the previous survey, the Minjoo Party had higher support among voters in their 20s, but in this survey, the PPP (36.1%) showed an advantage. The PPP had higher approval ratings among voters in their 20s and those aged 60 and above, while the Minjoo Party was more favored among those in their 30s to 50s. By gender, the Minjoo Party led among women (39.6%), and the PPP led among men (34.4%).

By region, the Minjoo Party was dominant in all areas except Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), a conservative stronghold. However, the PPP maintained more than double the support in TK with 40.4%, compared to the Minjoo Party's 16.8%. Additionally, 70.9% of those who positively evaluated the president's performance supported the Minjoo Party, while 53.0% of those who evaluated it negatively supported the PPP. Support for other parties was as follows: People Party 6.6%, Open Democratic Party 6.4%, Justice Party 4.1%. The proportion of undecided or non-affiliated voters was 14.8%.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 24th to 25th among voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,008 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.0%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.