[Akyeong Poll] Lee Jae-myung Leads Ahead of Yoon Seok-yeol

Lee Nak-yeon surges then stagnates, Choi Jae-hyung rises but gap with leaders remains large

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] While former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's approval ratings continued to decline, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, who had been stagnant, made progress and recorded the highest approval rating among major candidates from both ruling and opposition parties. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon showed a sharp rise but then somewhat plateaued. Former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, who joined the People Power Party, showed an upward trend in approval ratings but still remains distant from the frontrunners.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by WinG Korea Consulting on behalf of Asia Economy from July 24 to 25, Lee Jae-myung was deemed the "most suitable candidate for the next president" with 28.6%, followed by Yoon Seok-yeol at 24.3%. Compared to the previous poll conducted on July 10-11, Lee's rating rose by 2.8 percentage points, while Yoon's dropped by 2.1 percentage points, resulting in a ranking change within the margin of error.

Yoon's approval rating had risen to 33.3% on June 12-13, before he declared his political participation. Compared to that time, his rating dropped by about 9 percentage points in just over a month. Factors such as the arrest of his father-in-law, controversies involving his wife, and controversies over his own remarks appear to have influenced this decline. The shift from being a "potential politician" to an "official politician" seems to have somewhat lowered expectations. A key variable that will affect his future approval rating is whether he joins the People Power Party.

The party urges him to join promptly to receive organizational support. However, Yoon has delayed joining and continues his grassroots activities, while also attempting to expand his influence by recruiting current People Power Party district committee chairpersons. The party leadership has responded by threatening disciplinary actions against these recruits, leading to conflicts.

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon was surveyed at 16.9%, former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung at 5.9%, People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo at 5.0%, and former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae at 3.4%. Former Future United Party (now People Power Party) lawmaker Yoo Seung-min received 2.6%, former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun 2.4%, People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo 2.0%, People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook 1.4%, Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong 1.4%, and Democratic Party lawmaker Park Yong-jin 0.6%, all showing support in the 1-2% range.

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon and Governor Lee Jae-myung have been engaged in fierce exchanges over past records, but ultimately, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has risen while Lee Nak-yeon's has stagnated.

Former Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, who joined the People Power Party, saw a noticeable increase in approval ratings from 4.1% in the previous poll. He joined the party on July 15, just 17 days after resigning as Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman, and registered as a preliminary presidential candidate with the National Election Commission on July 26. In terms of ranking, he is the second conservative opposition candidate after Yoon Seok-yeol, but the gap is large, indicating a long way to go.

In a survey asking about suitability among six Democratic Party presidential primary candidates, Lee Jae-myung led with 35.4%, followed by Lee Nak-yeon at 22.4%, former Minister Choo Mi-ae at 6.3%, lawmaker Park Yong-jin at 6.1%, former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun at 5.1%, and lawmaker Kim at 1.2%. Lee Jae-myung received strong support from respondents in their 40s and 50s, with 55.6% and 42.2% respectively, but relatively weaker support from those in their 20s and seniors aged 60 and above. Lee Nak-yeon received high support from people in their 30s and from the Honam region.

Among major conservative opposition candidates, Yoon Seok-yeol had the highest support at 28.4%, followed by lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo at 15.9%, former Future United Party (now People Power Party) lawmaker Yoo Seung-min at 9.1%, former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung at 8.6%, and People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo at 6.1%. Among People Power Party supporters, Yoon's approval rating was 63.2% in the same poll a month ago (June 26-27), but this time it dropped to 51.7%. In contrast, internal candidates within the People Power Party showed noticeable upward trends, highlighting a contrast.