[AKYUNG Poll] President Moon's Approval Rating Remains in the 40% Range for 2 Months

Positive-Negative Gap Narrows to 4%P
Support Rate High at 60% Among 40s
Rising Trend Since 4·7 By-Election Defeat

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] President Moon Jae-in maintained solid support in the 40s age group, sustaining a positive approval rating in the 40% range for two consecutive months. The gap between positive and negative evaluations, which had fluctuated around 20 percentage points, narrowed sharply to 4 percentage points. The visible change is analyzed to have been triggered by the April 7 by-elections. Before the election, negative evaluations rose significantly due to the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) scandal and worsening public sentiment on real estate, fueling a 'regime judgment theory.' However, after the ruling party's defeat in the actual election, the trend reversed to a gradual increase in positive evaluations.

When asked about the evaluation of the president's performance in office, 46.7% of the public responded positively (16.5% generally doing well, 30.1% doing very well). Negative evaluations stood at 51.4% (13.2% generally doing poorly, 38.2% doing very poorly). The gap is 4.7 percentage points, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. In the same survey conducted a month earlier (June 26?27), the gap was 13.5 percentage points, and in the previous survey (July 10?11), it was 5.9 percentage points.

The positive evaluation of the president is interpreted as linked to the consolidation of the ruling party's support base as the Democratic Party's presidential primary intensified, and the rise of conservative opposition frontrunners such as former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung, which strengthened the pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) faction's unity.

The positive rating was around 36% immediately after the April 7 by-elections. At that time, the positive-negative gap widened to 23.3 percentage points (4th week of April). Then, following the first summit meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden, the survey conducted in the 5th week of May (May 29?30) showed a rebound to the 40% range. Since then, as the presidential primary race began, the rating has steadily remained in the 40% range. Recent incidents such as the COVID-19 cluster infection in the Cheonghae Unit and the Supreme Court's guilty verdict on Kim Kyung-soo, Governor of Gyeongnam Province, do not appear to have significantly affected the president's evaluation.

By age group, the solid support base in their 40s remained steadfast. Positive evaluations of President Moon in the 40s were 60.3%, the highest among all age groups. By region, the positive evaluation rates were in the order of Gwangju and Jeolla (55.1%), Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (54.1%), Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (48.9%), Gyeonggi and Incheon (48.8%), Gangwon and Jeju (46.9%), Seoul (44.8%), and Daegu and Gyeongbuk (23.9%).

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-Gi Korea Consulting, targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide from the 24th to 25th. A total of 1,008 people responded, with an overall response rate of 7.0%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey outlines, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.