Yoon Seok-yeol's Approval Rating Drops to 20% Range... Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon Reach Highest Levels This Year, Closing In Fast [Realmeter]

Realmeter-OhmyNews, 2nd Week of July Next Presidential Candidate Preference
Yoon Seok-yeol (27.8%)·Lee Jae-myung (26.4%)·Lee Nak-yeon (15.6%)

Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating falls 4.5 percentage points from 32.3%
Lee Jae-myung breaks record, narrowing gap with Yoon from 9.5%p to 1.4%p
Lee Nak-yeon surges nearly doubling support from 8.4% to 15.6% compared to previous survey

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating has dropped to the 20% range. This is the first time in four months since his approval rating rose to the 30% range in March. Taking advantage of the dip in Yoon's approval rating, ruling party presidential candidates are closely trailing behind.

Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung has set a new high in approval ratings this year, narrowing the gap with former Prosecutor General Yoon to just 1 percentage point, and former party leader Lee Nak-yeon also surged significantly compared to the previous survey, rising to the mid-teens in percentage. Former Minister Chu Mi-ae rose to 4th place, and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung climbed to 5th place.

On the 15th, Realmeter, a polling agency, conducted a survey commissioned by OhmyNews over two days from the 12th to the 13th of July, targeting 2,036 adults aged 18 and over nationwide (response rate 5.2%) to gauge preferences for the next presidential candidates for the second week of July. Former Prosecutor General Yoon recorded 27.8%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous survey in the fourth week of June, falling into the 20% range. Since his approval rating rose to 34.4% in March this year, it had consistently stayed in the 30% range but dropped to the 20% range for the first time in four months.

Although there was no change in the ranking order, the gap with 2nd place Governor Lee narrowed from 9.5 percentage points to 1.4 percentage points, which is within the margin of error (±2.2 percentage points) during the same period.

Governor Lee recorded 26.4%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous survey, setting a new high for this year. The previous high was 25.3% in May.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The presidential candidate with the most noticeable rise in approval ratings was former party leader Lee Nak-yeon. In this survey, Lee Nak-yeon recorded 15.6%, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous survey, securing 3rd place. His approval rating, which had been fluctuating in single digits, jumped to double digits at once, marking his highest record this year. The previous high was 15.5% in February.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Former Minister Chu Mi-ae rose to 4th place for the first time with 5.2%, up 1.3 percentage points. Following her, former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung took 5th place with 4.2%, surpassing lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (3.6%).

Next were former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (2.0%), People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (1.7%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (1.7%), lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook (1.5%), Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.3%), former Justice Party leader Shim Sang-jung (1.1%), lawmaker Ha Tae-kyung (1.1%), former United Future Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn (1.1%), lawmaker Park Yong-jin (0.5%), and lawmaker Kim Du-kwan (0.4%).

'Other figures' accounted for 0.8%, 'None' 2.7%, and 'Don't know' 1.3%.

Meanwhile, the combined support for the progressive/ruling party candidates (Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, Chung Sye-kyun, Shim Sang-jung, Park Yong-jin, Kim Du-kwan) rose by 8.5 percentage points to 50.9%, while the combined preference for conservative/opposition candidates (Yoon Seok-yeol, Choi Jae-hyung, Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seung-min, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yoon Hee-sook, Won Hee-ryong, Ha Tae-kyung, Hwang Kyo-ahn) fell by 5.2 percentage points to 44.3%. The gap between the two camps was 6.6 percentage points, with the progressive/ruling party candidates leading again for the first time in a month and a half since the end of May.

In hypothetical one-on-one matchups, former Prosecutor General Yoon was ahead of both Governor Lee and former party leader Lee, but both contests were within the margin of error and closely contested.

In the one-on-one race against Governor Lee, Yoon received 39.4% support, slightly ahead of Lee's 38.6%, but the gap narrowed significantly from 12.6 percentage points in the previous survey to 0.8 percentage points.

In the one-on-one race against former party leader Lee, Yoon led with 41.0% over Lee's 36.7%, but the gap shrank from 20.9 percentage points in the previous survey to 4.3 percentage points, remaining within single digits.

This survey was conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) with automatic response, sampling 90% mobile and 10% landline numbers. Statistical adjustments were made using weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of June 2021. The sampling error margin is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.