'Lee Nak-yeon vs Yoon Seok-youl' head-to-head: Lee Nak-yeon leads by 2.6p... 43.7% vs 41.2%
'Lee Jae-myung vs Yoon Seok-youl' race shows Yoon Seok-youl ahead
Lee Nak-yeon surpasses former Prosecutor General Yoon for the first time in head-to-head polls
[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] A poll has shown that former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon holds an advantage over his intra-party rival, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, in a hypothetical one-on-one presidential race. Although the race is extremely close within the margin of error, former leader Lee demonstrated higher competitiveness than Governor Lee in head-to-head matchups against opposition candidates former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung. Notably, in the one-on-one race against former Prosecutor General Yoon, former leader Lee even led within the margin of error.
On the 13th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a poll from the 10th to 11th among 1,011 nationwide voters aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). In the ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ matchup, former leader Lee received 43.7% support, leading former Prosecutor General Yoon’s 41.2% by 2.6 percentage points. Although within the margin of error, this is the first time in a poll by the same organization that former leader Lee has surpassed former Prosecutor General Yoon. The gap was even wider in the race against former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi. Former leader Lee garnered 43.5%, while Choi received 36.8%, giving Lee a 6.7 percentage point lead, showing an advantage beyond the margin of error.
On the other hand, Governor Lee Jae-myung, who had been leading in ruling party presidential candidate support, showed signs of slowing down. Governor Lee defeated former Chairman Choi with 42.6% to 36.1%, but trailed former Prosecutor General Yoon by 0.7 percentage points in their matchup.
Former leader Lee’s rise is consistent with trends seen in several recent polls. As the primary progresses, Democratic Party supporters appear to be consolidating around former leader Lee. In the ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ race, 82.3% of Democratic Party supporters backed former leader Lee, whereas only 71.3% supported Governor Lee in the ‘Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ race. Additionally, Governor Lee’s personal background scrutiny and controversial remarks during TV debates likely influenced these results. Conversely, former leader Lee’s greatest strength, ‘stability,’ has found more room to stand out.
While former leader Lee’s competitiveness draws attention in one-on-one matchups, the two-strong system of ‘Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung’ remains solid in multi-candidate races. In a poll including all candidates from both ruling and opposition parties, former Prosecutor General Yoon led with 26.4%, followed closely by Governor Lee at 25.8%. Next were former leader Lee (16.4%), Representative Hong Joon-pyo (4.8%), former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (4.7%), former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi (4.1%), former Representative Yoo Seung-min (3.2%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (3.0%), People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (2.1%), Representative Park Yong-jin (1.3%), and Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.3%).
In the same poll, President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating rose 4 percentage points from the previous week to 46.0%, while disapproval dropped 3.6 percentage points to 51.9%. Party support showed the Democratic Party, which recently held preliminary presidential primaries, leading the People Power Party by 3.5 percentage points within the margin of error, at 35.4% to 31.9%. Regarding disaster relief funds, more than four out of ten citizens (48.6%) responded that payments should be made to ‘all citizens.’ Support for the currently discussed plan to provide funds to the bottom 80% income bracket was 35.1%, while 14.6% opposed the payments altogether.
The response rate for this survey was 7.5%, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
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