Already at Stage 3, Hesitating... Repeating Failures of the 1st to 3rd Major Waves Again

Vaccination Still Insufficient
Continuous Easing of Quarantine Measures Signals Trouble

On the 8th, citizens who visited the screening clinic in Mapo-gu, Seoul, are waiting in line for COVID-19 testing. The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the same day, the number of new confirmed cases increased by 1,275, marking the highest number since the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] "Complacency has triggered the crisis of the 4th wave."

On the 8th, as the number of new COVID-19 cases reached a record high, experts pointed out that the failures of the 1st to 3rd waves are being repeated. Even in countries with high vaccination rates such as the United States, Israel, and the United Kingdom, the resurgence phase intensified due to the 'Delta variant' virus, but the analysis is that complacency with the domestic situation and continuous signals of easing quarantine measures were the root cause. Although the number of confirmed cases in the metropolitan area already met the criteria for raising to level 3, the delay for two weeks caused a surge in cases, eventually leading to consideration of raising social distancing to 'level 4.'

Professor Lee Jae-gap of Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital said, "Last weekend, with confirmed cases in the 700s, experts warned of the 4th wave," adding, "In a situation where vaccination rates are still insufficient, the government's continuous mention of easing quarantine measures from June instead of July was a misjudgment in quarantine policy." The government's signals to ease measures such as 'removing outdoor masks' during the spread of the Delta variant caused a sense of laxity in quarantine, ultimately resulting in the highest number of confirmed cases.

This mistake also occurred during the 3rd wave. In December last year, the government extended the social distancing level and special year-end and New Year quarantine measures for two weeks, fearing significant economic damage if the distancing was raised to level 3. Professor Lee said, "During the 2nd wave, as confirmed cases began to decline, the quarantine measures were relaxed, which caused greater damage during the 3rd wave," adding, "Eventually, confirmed cases reached the 1,200 range, and the same situation is repeating."

Experts expressed concerns about the social and economic impact if the current metropolitan area social distancing level 2 is rapidly raised to level 4. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University Department of Preventive Medicine said, "Allowing gatherings of only up to two people after 6 p.m. is an unprecedented measure," and added, "The government, which had signaled easing quarantine measures just a week ago, suddenly raising to level 4 may be difficult for the public to accept." Professor Jung argued, "Before the outbreak worsens further, the new level 3 social distancing should be applied in the metropolitan area now, with additional quarantine measures, and then actively consider raising to level 4."

As the COVID-19 crisis has continued for one and a half years, public fatigue has deepened, so the analysis is that accelerating vaccination is inevitable. According to the COVID-19 Vaccination Response Promotion Team, as of midnight on the day, a cumulative total of 15,476,019 people have received the first dose, recording a vaccination rate of 30.1% of the population. Some have suggested prioritizing vaccination for the highly active 20s and 30s over those in their 50s, but the government has stated it will not consider this. Professor Jung said, "Vaccines should first protect high-risk groups," adding, "People in their 50s have a higher risk of becoming critically ill, so they should be vaccinated before those in their 20s and 30s."