Presidential Race Narrowed to Two Candidates... Conservative Victory Expected
IAEA Director General: "Nuclear Deal Must Be Made with New Iranian Government"
[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei is drawing international attention as he encourages voters to participate in the upcoming Iranian presidential election. With the conservative candidate supported by Khamenei expected to win, concerns are rising that the Iran nuclear deal will become even more difficult to salvage, potentially having a significant impact on global oil prices. Previously, the 6th round of negotiations, which was the last attempt before the election, collapsed, and it is now anticipated that the Iran nuclear deal will have to be renegotiated with the new Iranian government formed after the election.
According to foreign media including the AP on the 16th (local time), Khamenei appeared on Iran's state television and said, "A high voter turnout will deliver a special shock to the international community," adding, "Iran's enemies believe that if the people’s support is low, they can shake Iran, and they are trying to prevent election participation." He urged the public to vote. This statement is interpreted as a move to support the conservative candidate favored by Khamenei in this election.
On the same day, three minor candidates in the Iranian presidential election withdrew consecutively, which is analyzed as being influenced by the ruling elite including Khamenei. According to Iran's state Press TV, reformist candidate Mousa Mehralizadeh sent a letter to the Ministry of Interior withdrawing from the presidential race, and conservative-leaning candidate Saeed Jalili also withdrew. Likewise, Alireza Zakani, also considered a conservative, stepped down from his candidacy.
As a result, the Iranian presidential election scheduled for the 18th has narrowed down to a two-way contest between conservative candidate Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi and reformist candidate Abdol Nasser Hemmati. In particular, Raisi is expected to win comfortably, having received 58.4% support in polls conducted by Iranian state broadcasters.
With the conservative regime expected to take power through the Iranian presidential election, the outlook is predominantly that negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal will become even more difficult. The 6th round of talks held last weekend ended without significant progress, raising concerns that the Iran nuclear deal may be effectively dead.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in an interview with the Italian daily La Repubblica on the same day, "The Iran nuclear deal will be difficult to resume until the new Iranian government is formed," adding, "The weeks of discussions dealt with very complex and delicate technical issues, but what is really needed now is political will from the Iranian side."
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