Rising Expectations for a Supercycle... Semiconductor Growth Rate Forecast Raised Again

WSTS Revises Full-Year Semiconductor Sales Growth Forecast Upward from 10.9% to 19.7%
Memory Semiconductor Outlook Sharply Raised from 7.6% to 31.7%
Semiconductor Sales Expected to Grow 8.8% Next Year, Continuing Growth Trend

[Asia Economy Reporter Suyeon Woo] Expectations for the semiconductor industry, which has entered a super boom period due to the special demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are rising, leading to another upward revision of the global semiconductor market sales forecast for this year. In particular, with a forecast of over 30% growth in memory semiconductor sales, domestic semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate the global DRAM market, are expected to benefit.

According to the industry on the 9th, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) announced in a report released the day before that the expected semiconductor market sales for this year will increase by 19.7% compared to the previous year, reaching $527.223 billion. This figure is nearly double the 10.9% growth rate forecast by WSTS in March.

Photo by Reuters, Yonhap News

By sector, memory semiconductors are expected to lead the super cycle with the largest sales growth. WSTS projected this year's memory semiconductor sales to increase by 31.7% year-on-year to $154.782 billion. This is a 24.1 percentage point upward revision from the previous growth forecast of 7.6%. Additionally, sensor semiconductors (22.4%) and analog semiconductors (21.7%) are also expected to drive growth. WSTS stated, "All semiconductor product groups except optical semiconductors and microcomponent ICs are expected to show double-digit growth this year."

This upward revision of the WSTS memory semiconductor forecast is also positive news for the domestic semiconductor industry, which holds over 70% of the global DRAM market share. The forecast reflects market conditions such as the sharp increase in demand for server DRAM for data centers starting in the second half of this year and the expected price rise due to continued supply shortages of mobile DRAM.

By region, the Asia-Pacific region, including Korea and Taiwan, is expected to have the highest growth rate at 23.5%, accounting for 63.5% of global sales. Europe follows with 21.1% growth, holding an 8.6% market share, and the Americas are expected to grow by 11.1%, accounting for 20.1% of sales.

Meanwhile, the report also revealed the semiconductor market forecast for next year for the first time. WSTS expects semiconductor market sales in 2022 to increase by 8.8% from this year to $573.44 billion. It is analyzed that semiconductor sales growth will continue next year, setting a record high. Among them, memory semiconductors are expected to lead the global semiconductor market boom with the highest growth rate of 17.4% next year.