[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myung in a 'Neck-and-Neck' Race Within Margin of Error

Yoon Seok-yeol 30.5%
Lee Jae-myung 27.1%
Narrow margin within margin of error

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] In the next presidential candidate support survey, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol (30.5%) was found to be narrowly ahead of Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (27.1%) within the margin of error. The difference in support rates between former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee was 3.4 percentage points, within the ±3.1 percentage points margin of error.

Compared to last month's survey, former Prosecutor General Yoon's support dropped by 3.3 percentage points, while Governor Lee's rose by 3.0 percentage points, narrowing the gap between the two candidates to a "photo finish."

Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon followed with a support rate of 10.1%. Other candidates included independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (6.5%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (3.7%), former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (3.2%), Justice Party lawmaker Shim Sang-jung and People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (3.1%), former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae (2.6%), and Jeju Province Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.5%). Other figures accounted for 1.6%, no preference was 5.3%, and unsure was 1.7%.

Support for former Prosecutor General Yoon was prominent among the elderly, with 47.4% in the 70+ age group and 42.2% in their 60s. Support was 28.6% among those in their 50s, 27.2% among 18-29 year-olds, 24.6% among those in their 30s, and 19.3% among those in their 40s. Support for Governor Lee was highest among those in their 40s (39.2%), followed by those in their 50s (31.8%), 30s (29.1%), 70+ (19.8%), 60s (19.6%), and 18-29 year-olds (19.1%).

Among People Power Party supporters, 62.9% said they support former Prosecutor General Yoon. Support for opposition candidates lawmaker Hong and former lawmaker Yoo was only 14.7% and 4.7%, respectively. Additionally, former Prosecutor General Yoon's support was higher than Governor Lee's among centrists and non-partisans. Among People's Party supporters, 37.2% supported former Prosecutor General Yoon. Among those who answered their preferred party as "none/unsure," 36.1% also supported former Prosecutor General Yoon.

Governor Lee was preferred by 52.1% of Democratic Party supporters. Among Democratic Party supporters, 22.0% said they support former leader Lee, indicating a split in the support base. Governor Lee had the highest preference among Open Democratic Party supporters at 61.2%. Among Justice Party supporters, 30.9% supported Governor Lee. Among those who answered their preferred party as "none/unsure," 15.4% preferred Governor Lee, and among People's Party supporters, 12.3% supported Governor Lee.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 15th to 16th of the month, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and older. A total of 1,019 people responded, with an overall response rate of 8.0%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number wireless ARS. The sample was extracted using weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.