Chinese Respiratory Disease Expert: "Global COVID-19 Herd Immunity Expected in 2 to 3 Years"

Zhong Nanshan, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, predicted that global herd immunity against COVID-19 will be achieved in 2 to 3 years.

According to the Chinese state-run Global Times on the 14th, Zhong Nanshan made this statement after explaining China's COVID-19 situation and vaccination status at the Asia Science Committee Conference held in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province. Zhong is regarded as China's top authority on respiratory diseases.

At the conference, Zhong emphasized that the best way to achieve herd immunity is through mass vaccination, adding, "Global cooperation over 2 to 3 years is necessary for herd immunity." He criticized herd immunity through natural infection as an "unrealistic, unscientific, and inhumane method," noting that it would mean 70-80% of the world's population infected and a 5% death rate.

He also presented the vaccination rates required to achieve herd immunity. According to Zhong, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 70%, 83.3% of China's population must be vaccinated, while in Asia and Europe, 80.2% and 96.2% respectively need vaccination. Globally, 89.2% of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity.

Zhong explained that the differences in vaccination rates required for herd immunity by region are due to demographic factors such as population density and age distribution.

Regarding China, Zhong pointed out that although many people have been vaccinated, the vaccination rate is only 23%. As of the previous day, China had administered 305 million vaccine doses. China aims to achieve herd immunity by vaccinating 70-80% of its 1.4 billion population by the end of this year to ensure the successful hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics next year and is accelerating vaccinations.

Zhong emphasized, "No country is safe until all countries are safe," and urged, "To reduce the negative impact of COVID-19, herd immunity through vaccination must be achieved as soon as possible."