Lula Leads Next Brazil Presidential Election Polls by a Wide Margin... Chances of Re-election Increased

Former President Lula 41% VS President Bolsonaro 23%

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] The possibility of the return to power of Luiz In?cio Lula da Silva, the former president of Brazil known as the 'godfather of the left,' is growing stronger. With less than a year and a half remaining until next year's presidential election, public opinion polls show a remarkable rise in his approval ratings, leading to numerous analyses predicting Lula's spectacular comeback.

According to the presidential candidate expected vote share survey released on the 12th (local time) by Datafolha, a leading Brazilian polling firm, former President Lula received 41%, while President Jair Bolsonaro received 23%, showing an 18 percentage point gap.

Other presidential candidates, including former Justice Minister Sergio Moro, who gained fame leading corruption investigations during his time as a federal judge, and Jo?o Doria, governor of S?o Paulo who increased his recognition during the COVID-19 crisis, all received single-digit expected vote shares.

Assuming no candidate wins a majority in the first round and a runoff election is held between former President Lula and President Bolsonaro, the expected vote shares are Lula 55% and Bolsonaro 32%.

In particular, former President Lula is projected to win against any other presidential candidate in a runoff election besides Bolsonaro.

When asked about rejection rates for each candidate, 54% named President Bolsonaro, while 36% named former President Lula. The responses indicating rejection are interpreted as expressing the intention of 'not voting for them under any circumstances.'

Negative factors such as poor COVID-19 response, vaccine procurement delays, sluggish economic growth, rising unemployment, and inflation appear to have contributed to the rejection of Bolsonaro.

This survey was conducted for the first time after the Federal Supreme Court nullified the prison sentence for corruption charges against former President Lula. Previously, the Federal Supreme Court reaffirmed the nullification of Lula's prison sentence by a majority opinion during a plenary session attended by all 11 justices last month.

As a result, former President Lula regained his political rights and became eligible to run for president. Since then, Lula has indirectly and directly expressed his intention to run in next year's presidential election through interviews with domestic and international media.

In an interview with Argentina's C5N TV in mid-last month, former President Lula harshly criticized President Bolsonaro's autocratic behavior and poor COVID-19 response, calling him a "fascist" and "mass murderer," and said, "I may decide to run for president to bring Bolsonaro down."