"If the basic reproduction number is kept low through social distancing,
damage can be minimized quickly, and COVID-19 can also be suppressed"
[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Ji-hee] The quarantine authorities have stated that the originally targeted herd immunity by November is sufficiently achievable.
On the 7th, Kwon Jun-wook, the 2nd Deputy Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said at a regular briefing, "When mentioning the herd immunity level for COVID-19, the basic reproduction number (R0) by country and region must be considered," adding, "The lower the basic reproduction number in a country, the earlier and greater the vaccine's effect can appear even if the herd immunity level is relatively low. Conversely, countries with a higher basic reproduction number will experience the opposite pattern." He emphasized, "The formation of herd immunity by November, which we are aiming for, is fully possible."
The quarantine authorities have set a goal to complete vaccination for 36 million people, which is 70% of the population, by November to achieve herd immunity. This figure is based on the initial basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Korea, which ranged from 2.2 to 3.3. Taking the median value of 2.8, the required herd immunity level is about 63-64%. Since vaccination does not result in 100% antibody formation, the authorities set the target at 70%.
Deputy Head Kwon explained, "Thanks to the public's efforts such as wearing masks and social distancing, Korea's basic reproduction number has been suppressed at a level slightly above 1," adding, "If the basic reproduction number is continuously kept low, the more vaccinations proceed, the sooner the damage can be minimized and COVID-19 in the community can be suppressed. Various measures for social distancing can also be diversified."
He continued, "It is possible to see a clear protective effect in the community even before November, and the COVID-19 outbreak can be controlled," reiterating. He presented three conditions to achieve this: adherence to social distancing, improvement in vaccination rates, and trust and science.
He pointed out, "It is important to continuously suppress and further reduce the potential for COVID-19 outbreaks through social distancing," and "Based on past experiences with annual influenza vaccinations, the speed and rate of vaccination must be high." Lastly, he emphasized trust. Deputy Head Kwon said, "The most important things are trust and science," adding, "We will continue to implement quarantine measures through active communication, transparency, consultations with experts based on research, investigation, and analysis, and by reflecting on cases from other countries."
Finally, Deputy Head Kwon stated, "As vaccinations proceed for the high-risk group aged 60 and over, the first phase of damage minimization will appear, followed by a gradual increase in community immunity, leading to a decrease in COVID-19 cases. Accordingly, rational adjustments to social distancing will become possible step by step," urging, "How much this period can be advanced depends entirely on ourselves."
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