NC's 'Pro Baseball H3' Success... Will It Escape Lineage Dependence?

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] NCSoft's new title, ‘Pro Baseball H3,’ is running a successful streak. With new games scheduled for release one after another in the second half of the year, attention is focused on whether the revenue structure, which has been overly dependent on the Lineage IP (intellectual property), can be improved.

◆ Number 1 in Popularity Among Sports Games on Both Major App Markets = According to NCSoft on the 21st, the new mobile baseball management game ‘Pro Baseball H3’ has been sailing smoothly since its launch. Pro Baseball H3 was released on the 6th and reached number one in Google Play’s sports game revenue rankings within six days, on the 12th. On the 8th, it also ranked first in the sports genre popularity charts on both major app markets (App Store and Google Play).

Interest in baseball also played a part in the success of Pro Baseball H3. The professional baseball season, which opened on the 3rd, is receiving hotter attention than ever due to the appearance of the SSG Landers and the return of player Choo Shin-soo. At the same time, baseball games that can quench the thirst of baseball fans during times when outdoor activities are difficult are also receiving positive responses.

In particular, NCSoft’s artificial intelligence (AI) technology has been incorporated into Pro Baseball H3, drawing attention. Users can enjoy the game as if watching real baseball through the ‘Live Broadcast’ provided during the game and the ‘Highlights’ edited directly by AI after the game ends. The ‘Reports and H3 News’ provided mid-season also reflect the trend of modern baseball, where data utilization is important. Player data can be checked at a glance.

Pro Baseball H3 is regarded as a game with high ‘realism and immersion,’ which are basic elements of management games. The content of Pro Baseball H3, structured similarly to the actual baseball market, enriches the user experience in various aspects. The 144-game pennant race proceeds every hour in accordance with the KBO League schedule, and users can use various strategies such as tactic cards and support cards to win games.

NCSoft explained that Pro Baseball H3 was made as a game that not only users familiar with games but also everyone who loves baseball can enjoy. Shim Jae-gu, the development PD in charge of Pro Baseball H3, said, “Unlike other games that require long hours of connection and concentration, you can check the game results by taking a short break,” adding, “We created many elements that allow users to enjoy additional fun without taking up much time.”

◆ Can Dependence on Lineage Be Reduced? = The success of Pro Baseball H3 has brought some relief to NCSoft, which had a heavy burden on new titles due to high dependence on the Lineage IP. Last year, Lineage IP accounted for more than 80% of NCSoft’s 2.4162 trillion KRW in sales, showing a high dependence on Lineage.

Looking at NCSoft’s performance data from last year, annual sales from the Lineage IP reached 1.9585 trillion KRW. Specifically, the mobile games Lineage M earned 828.7 billion KRW, Lineage 2M earned 849.6 billion KRW, and the PC games Lineage and Lineage 2 generated 175.6 billion KRW and 104.4 billion KRW respectively.

There were also growing concerns within NCSoft about this. Although Lineage is running a successful streak, there is no guarantee that its current popularity will continue. Recently, user complaints such as controversies over probability-based items have been steadily raised, and the so-called loyal customer base called ‘Linjeossi (Lineage + ajeossi, meaning middle-aged men)’ is showing signs of gradual departure.

Because of this, the success of Pro Baseball H3 is evaluated as a stepping stone to break away from the revenue structure dependent on Lineage. Expectations are also rising that if the upcoming releases ‘Blade & Soul 2’ and ‘Trickster M’ succeed in the second half of the year, the proportion of Lineage sales will significantly decrease this year. In particular, Blade & Soul 2 has high company-level expectations, with CEO Kim Taek-jin personally holding an online showcase to introduce it.

If these games succeed consecutively, NCSoft is expected to enter the era of 3 trillion KRW in annual sales. Securing an additional customer base in their 20s and 30s besides Linjeossi is a secondary achievement. An industry insider said, “The key to reducing dependence on Lineage is how well the next titles perform,” and predicted, “In the second half of the year, efforts will focus on diversifying revenue sources through titles like Blade & Soul 2.”