Realization of Growth Rate Gap... IMF Lowers Southeast Asia Economic Growth Forecasts

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its economic growth forecast for five major Southeast Asian countries this year from 5.2% to 4.9%, CNBC reported on the 14th (local time). The five major countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Jonathan Ostry, Deputy Director for Asia and the Pacific at the IMF, explained, "Lockdown measures were reinstated due to the spread of COVID-19 infections, which has worsened the economic outlook."

As vaccination delays continue, COVID-19 cases are increasing. According to 'Our World in Data,' a data site established by researchers at the University of Oxford in the UK, Indonesia's vaccination rate is 3.76%, lower than the global average of 5.76%. Malaysia and the Philippines have vaccination rates of only 1.8% and 0.96%, respectively.

This reflects growing concerns about the widening growth rate gap between advanced and emerging countries in the post-COVID-19 era becoming a reality.

On the 6th, the IMF released its economic outlook report, raising the global economic growth forecast for this year from 5.5% to 6.0%. At that time, the IMF also raised the U.S. economic growth forecast by 1.3 percentage points to 6.4%, along with upward revisions for other major world economies.

The IMF also predicted that the growth rate gap between countries will widen. While the growth forecast for advanced economies was raised by 0.8 percentage points, the upward revision for emerging and developing countries was only 0.4 percentage points.

There are calls for equitable vaccine distribution to prevent the widening growth gap between advanced and emerging countries.

The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in a briefing on the 9th that while over 700 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been supplied worldwide, 87% of these vaccines have been distributed to wealthy and upper-middle-income countries, with low-income countries receiving only 0.2% of the vaccines.