[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] North Korea did not carry out any military provocations on the occasion of the Day of the Sun (the 15th), the birthday of Chairman Kim Il-sung, but there are expectations that it will soon resume nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.
[Image source=Yonhap News]
According to intelligence agencies including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Unification, and Ministry of National Defense on the 15th, no signs of North Korean military provocations were detected from the previous day until the morning of the 15th.
Kim Jun-rak, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing that morning in response to questions about North Korean military movements, "There are no additional activities worth mentioning so far," adding, "Our military is closely monitoring related movements in close cooperation with South Korea-U.S. intelligence agencies and maintaining a firm readiness posture."
Intelligence agencies had been closely watching North Korea’s movements, anticipating the possibility of military provocations on the Day of the Sun, Chairman Kim Il-sung’s birthday.
North Korea carried out missile provocations on April 14 last year, one day before the Day of the Sun. In 2017, it also launched ballistic missiles into the East Sea from the Sinpo area in South Hamgyong Province around the Day of the Sun.
Experts on North Korea also believe there is a high possibility of military provocations around the Day of the Sun this year. This is because the Biden administration in the United States is reviewing its North Korea policy, and North Korea may use provocations as a card to pressure the U.S.
Recent signs such as the refurbishment of a 3,000-ton submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test vessel at the Sinpo Shipyard in North Korea are being evaluated as indications of military provocations.
U.S. intelligence agencies also expect North Korea to carry out military provocations soon.
On the 14th (local time), Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that North Korea might resume nuclear tests and ICBM test launches as part of an attempt to break the solidarity between the U.S. and its allies.
This statement aligns with the warning in the "Annual Threat Assessment by U.S. Intelligence Agencies" report released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence the previous day, which stated that "North Korea will pose a weapons of mass destruction (WMD) threat in the near future."
The report projected that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, might consider conducting nuclear tests or long-range missile test launches this year to negotiate with the U.S. on his own terms.
Glenn VanHerck, Commander of the U.S. Northern Command, also stated in written testimony submitted to the House Armed Services Committee hearing that "North Korea has indicated it is no longer bound by the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests announced in 2018," adding, "This suggests that enhanced ICBM tests could begin soon."
Meanwhile, North Korea has largely normalized events this year that were mostly canceled or significantly scaled down last year due to COVID-19, creating a festive atmosphere throughout society, which had been stagnated by COVID lockdowns and economic difficulties.
Korean Central Broadcasting reported on the day that "To celebrate the greatest joyous national holiday, the Day of the Sun, an evening gathering and fireworks by youth students will be held in Pyongyang on the evening of the 15th."
However, reports that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, paid respects at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where Chairman Kim Il-sung’s body is enshrined, had not appeared by the morning of the 15th. Similar to the Day of the Shining Star (Kim Jong-il’s birthday) in February, it seems likely that the visit will take place on the day itself.
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