Housing Industry Research Institute Gyeonggi On-Site Survey Index April Forecast 101.6... Surpasses Baseline After Two Months
"Reflects Optimism for Improved Private Housing Supply Environment Including Reconstruction"
April Housing Business Survey Index (HBSI) Trends (Source - Korea Housing Industry Research Institute)
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Taemin] A survey has shown that expectations for the housing business market in Seoul have increased following the election of Oh Se-hoon as mayor of Seoul.
According to the April Housing Business Survey Index (HBSI) data released on the 12th by the Housing Industry Research Institute (hereafter HIR), Seoul's outlook score was 101.6, surpassing the baseline (100), indicating expanded optimism that the housing business market will improve.
The HBSI index is based on a survey of about 500 member companies affiliated with the Korea Housing Association and the Korea Housing Construction Association. It is a supply market indicator that comprehensively assesses the housing business market. The baseline is 100; a score above 100 means the housing market is expected to improve, while below 100 indicates a negative outlook.
Seoul's HBSI outlook rose gradually from 86.0 in November last year to 101.9 in February this year, crossing the baseline, but fell back to 97.6 last month.
HIR interpreted this result as reflecting expectations of a policy shift that could improve the private housing supply environment following Mayor Oh's election. However, HIR added, "Since it will take some time for Mayor Oh's pledges to be applied to actual projects, short-term improvements in the housing business environment may be difficult."
The nationwide HBSI outlook was 90.6, maintaining the 90-point level for the second consecutive month. By region, the metropolitan area (101.2) recovered the baseline (100) after two months, buoyed by rising expectations in Seoul (101.6) and Gyeonggi (108.0), but the provinces (86.8) only rose 2.6 points compared to the previous month. In particular, Busan (86.4) dropped 9.8 points from the previous month, and Daejeon (84.3) and Ulsan (82.6) sharply declined to the 80-point range, indicating a weak outlook.
This month’s redevelopment order outlook rose 4.7 points from the previous month to 93.7, and the reconstruction order outlook also increased by 2.1 points to 92.7, showing a slight improvement in negative perceptions of maintenance projects.
HIR explained, "With the announcement of policies to revitalize small-scale maintenance projects through the 2·4 measures and the pledges related to maintenance projects by candidates in the April 7 by-elections, negative perceptions of maintenance projects among housing developers are expected to improve, especially centered on Seoul."
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