[AK Poll] Seoul Mayor "Park Young-sun to Win" 33.0% "Oh Se-hoon to Win" 62.1%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] Six out of ten Seoul citizens believe that Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate, is most likely to win the upcoming Seoul mayoral by-election.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on 1,020 Seoul residents from the 30th to 31st of last month, before the publication ban period, when asked "Which candidate do you think has the highest chance of winning the Seoul mayoral by-election?" 62.1% responded with candidate Oh, the highest, while 33.0% chose Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party. Other candidates accounted for 0.9%, and 3.9% were unsure.

By gender, candidate Oh led among both men and women. Among men, 30.8% believed candidate Park would win, while 66.5% favored candidate Oh. Among women, 35.0% supported candidate Park, and 58.0% supported candidate Oh, showing candidate Oh's advantage.

By age group, candidate Oh generally held the lead, but in the 40s age group, a close race within the margin of error was observed. The percentage predicting candidate Oh's victory was 64.3% for those in their 20s, 58.3% in their 30s, 63.0% in their 50s, 70.5% in their 60s, and 72.7% for those aged 70 and above. However, in the 40s age group, 46.5% saw candidate Park as more likely to win, while 48.6% favored candidate Oh, indicating a tight contest.

By region, candidate Oh led in all areas including the downtown area (76.0%), northeast area (61.1%), and southeast area (71.3%), but in the northwest area (56.7%) and southwest area (56.7%), the percentage expecting candidate Oh to win was relatively lower.

By party support, the People Power Party supporters overwhelmingly rated candidate Oh's chances of winning highly. Among those who said they support the People Power Party, 95.0% believed candidate Oh had a high chance of winning, while only 3.6% chose candidate Park. Conversely, among Democratic Party supporters, 76.8% believed candidate Park would win, and 18.2% favored candidate Oh.

According to the Public Official Election Act, the publication of poll results is prohibited from the 1st to 8 p.m. on the 7th of this month, but it is allowed to publish or report on poll results conducted until the 31st of last month during this period.

This poll was conducted from the 30th to 31st of last month targeting 1,020 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul. It was conducted using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method, and the sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January. Weighting was applied by gender, age, and region (cell weighting), with a response rate of 6.8% and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.