[AKYUNG Poll] Busan Mayor "Park Hyung-jun to Win" 70.5% "Kim Young-choon to Win" 23.2%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] Seven out of ten Busan citizens believe that Park Hyung-joon, the candidate from the People Power Party, is highly likely to win the upcoming Busan mayoral by-election.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting on behalf of Asia Economy from the 30th to 31st of last month, before the publication ban period, targeting 1,012 eligible voters residing in Busan, 70.5% responded that Park is the most likely candidate to win the Busan mayoral by-election. Responses for Kim Young-chun, the candidate from the Democratic Party, accounted for 23.2%, other candidates 1.5%, and 4.8% were unsure.

Across all groups by gender, age, and region, the majority believed that Park had a higher chance of winning. Among males, 72.1% answered that Park was likely to win, while 69.0% of females agreed. By age group, 68.7% of those in their 20s, 70.4% in their 30s, 80.3% in their 60s, and 80.1% aged 70 all saw Park as having a high probability of winning. Regionally, responses favoring Park were dominant in the East (69.9%), Central (69.7%), North (76.3%), and West (67.4%) areas.

However, responses varied by party support. Among those who said they support the Democratic Party, 63.2% believed Kim had a higher chance of winning, while 31.0% thought Park was more likely to win. Conversely, among those who chose the People Power Party as their preferred party, 96.1% supported Park, with only 2.8% believing Kim would win.

According to the Public Official Election Act, the publication of public opinion poll results is prohibited from the 1st of this month until 8 p.m. on the 7th. However, it is permissible to publish or report on survey results conducted up to the 31st of last month during this period.

This poll was conducted from the 30th to 31st of last month, targeting 1,012 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Busan Metropolitan City, using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method. The sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January, with weighting applied by gender, age, and region (cell weighting). The response rate was 12.5%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.