[Politics, That Day...] If the Unification Had Been a Few Days Earlier... The Faded Agreement Between Yusiminn and Simsangjeong

2010 Gyeonggi Province Governor Election Leaving Lessons on Unification Timing...Limitations of Unification After Candidate Registration
Unification 3 Days Before Voting Day, a Dream-Like Comeback Drama...Invalid Votes and Voting Abstention Variables Must Be Considered

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jung-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, On That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

On April 25, 2019, at the Kim Dae-jung Library of Yonsei University in Mapo-gu, Seoul, Yoo Si-min, chairman of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, is delivering the opening address at the joint academic conference held by the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation and the Kim Dae-jung Library to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the passing of former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, and the first anniversary of the Panmunjom Declaration. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

“There were many invalid votes cast for the withdrawn candidate Sim Sang-jung, and some are demanding a re-vote because of this result...”

On June 4, 2010, just before the disbandment ceremony of the election campaign headquarters, Yoo Si-min, then the People's Participation Party candidate who lost the Gyeonggi Province governor election on June 2, posted this message.

It was a plea for restraint directed at some supporters who were calling for a re-vote based on the invalid votes. He took responsibility for the election defeat and asked them to withdraw their demands for a re-vote.

The controversy over invalid votes and the issue of a re-vote in the 2010 Gyeonggi Province governor election is related to the political engineering of candidate unification. Yoo Si-min ultimately created a one-on-one race against Kim Moon-soo of the Grand National Party but failed to win.

According to the National Election Commission, Kim Moon-soo received 2,271,492 votes (52.20%), and Yoo Si-min received 2,079,892 votes (47.79%). The vote difference between the two candidates was 191,600 votes. At that time, invalid votes reached 183,387, and the number of abstentions was 4,227,069.

The number of invalid votes in the 2010 Gyeonggi Province governor election was more than four times higher than the approximately 40,000 invalid votes in the 2006 election. The high number of invalid votes is closely related to the fact that Sim Sang-jung, the Progressive Party candidate, was listed on the ballot, but votes for her were classified as invalid at that time.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The timing of the candidate unification between Yoo Si-min and Sim Sang-jung was the focal point of the issue. The 2010 Gyeonggi Province governor election is recorded in political history as a ‘bad precedent’ regarding the timing of candidate unification. Candidate unification is a key variable that can determine the outcome of major elections. However, if overly focused on unification, the election results may fall far short of expectations.

The critical factor for the success or failure of unification is to reach a conclusion before the candidate registration deadline. If unification is achieved before registration, a synergy effect can be expected. This is because support can be concentrated on the unified candidate throughout the election campaign and actual voting.

If each candidate registers separately and then negotiates unification during the campaign, the agreement process is difficult, and even if concluded, it may not lead to the expected synergy effect.

This is because candidates may suffer from psychological warfare with their unification rivals during the campaign. An even worse situation is when candidates register separately and agree to unify after the Election Commission has already printed the ballots.

The 2010 Gyeonggi Province governor election was held on June 2, but unification was achieved on May 30 in the form of Sim Sang-jung’s withdrawal. Sim Sang-jung tearfully appealed, “Please make sure Yoo Si-min wins.”

A banner encouraging voter participation is being installed on the exterior wall of the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, about a month before the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election on the 10th. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The reason this form of unification shows its limitations is that those who intended to vote for Sim Sang-jung do not fully transfer their votes to Yoo Si-min.

Among those who wanted to cast a vote for Sim Sang-jung personally or for the Progressive Party, some may express their dissatisfaction with the unification result by abstaining or choosing another candidate rather than supporting Yoo Si-min of the People's Participation Party.

More problematic is when unification occurs after the ballots have been printed, and voters participate without realizing this. The Election Commission tries to prevent invalid votes by posting notices at polling stations about withdrawn candidates, but it is difficult to guarantee that every voter reads these notices before voting.

Early voting is another variable. If unification is achieved after early voting has ended and ballots have been printed, a large number of invalid votes may occur. Votes cast for a candidate who withdraws after voting are treated as invalid.

At the time, Yoo Si-min was expected to shake up the Gyeonggi Province governor election by successfully unifying with both the Democratic Party and the Progressive Party, but ultimately Kim Moon-soo won. The consensus is that the unification timing was too late.

Considering the surge in invalid votes and the narrow vote margin between Kim Moon-soo and Yoo Si-min, if unification had occurred a few days earlier or before candidate registration, the result might have been different. However, the conclusion is already set, and the election result cannot be reversed. The losing side may feel bitter, but in politics, ‘what if’ is just a word of regret.