"North Korea's Self-Reliance Unachievable Under Sanctions... Must Join Hands with South"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] North Korea has established a new five-year national economic development plan and is pursuing self-reliance, but experts point out that it is impossible to realize under the current situation of sanctions against North Korea.

Jo Han-beom, Senior Research Fellow at the Unification Policy Research Office, stated in the online series report by the Korea Institute for National Unification on the 9th titled "Changes in the State Strategy of the Kim Jong-un Regime and the Limits of the Self-Reliance Line," "North Korea's new five-year plan and self-reliance line are already failed strategies that inherently contain policy confusion and structural limitations in many aspects."

Researcher Jo said, "First, the concurrent strengthening of defense capabilities and economic development is a difficult-to-achieve 'economic nuclear parallel development line Season 2' under the current circumstances," adding, "Even if North Korea sacrifices the entire economy, the hypersonic glide combat warhead, underwater and ground solid-fuel engines, intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons, military reconnaissance satellites, etc., which were ordered by General Secretary Kim Jong-un, are difficult to develop in the near future."

He also pointed out that the chemical industry and metal industry, which General Secretary Kim designated as core industries, are nearly impossible to realize under sanctions and isolation. Researcher Jo said, "In modern industries, chemicals are based on petroleum, but due to sanctions against North Korea, North Korea's petroleum imports are strictly limited, so there is no condition to develop the petrochemical industry," adding, "North Korea has attempted 'carbon one (C1) chemical industry' using coal instead of petroleum as raw material for the chemical industry, but it has not succeeded."

Although General Secretary Kim criticized organizational conservatism and demanded revitalization of the people's economy, it is also difficult to redirect resources and privileges controlled by the Workers' Party and the military to the people's economy. Researcher Jo emphasized, "If the current line is maintained, the North Korean economic crisis will deepen further, and there is also a possibility that it will eventually transition into a total crisis of the regime."

Researcher Jo stressed that North Korea should cooperate with the South Korean government rather than relying on self-reliance. He said, "If this year passes, South Korea's political clock will enter a regime change period, and there is a possibility that the momentum of the Korean Peninsula peace process will weaken," adding, "If trust between the two Koreas is quickly restored and comprehensive agreements and phased implementation are pursued on the premise of sincerity in denuclearization, Chairman Kim's 'Iminwicheon' will approach reality rather than being a slogan."