[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Joint Exercises Starting Next Week... Will Verification Be Delayed Again?

It has been reported that South Korea and the United States will begin joint military exercises starting on the 5th. The photo shows a US 2nd Infantry Division M1A2 SEP tank crossing a pontoon bridge during the South Korea-US joint river crossing operation training held at the Hantan River in Yeoncheon-gun, Gyeonggi Province, in December 2015.

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for this month are expected to face significant challenges in verifying Full Operational Capability (FOC) due to the scaled-down implementation amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the 5th, a military official stated, "The exercise will be conducted in two phases: the first from the 8th to the 12th, and the second from the 13th to the 18th."

The first half of the joint command post exercise will primarily involve computer simulations. It is a defensive exercise designed to practice the response procedures of the combined South Korea-U.S. forces assuming provocations from North Korea. However, as the COVID-19 situation has not improved, it has become difficult for U.S. troops stationed overseas to enter South Korea. This means that verifying the FOC of the future combined command, a core task in the wartime operational control transfer, will be challenging in this exercise as originally planned. The scale and content of the exercise have reportedly been reduced due to the inability of U.S. forces to enter the country.

In particular, with the reduction in the scale and duration of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, South Korean personnel will use the command post inside the Joint Chiefs of Staff building in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, during this exercise. The Joint Chiefs of Staff personnel will not move to the B1 bunker within the Capital Defense Command, which they have used during previous joint exercises. This measure is to prevent COVID-19 infection during the exercise period. However, this means the exercise will not be conducted at the optimal location assuming wartime conditions, which could lead to various issues.

The problem is expected to persist. If the COVID-19 situation does not improve by the time of the second half command post exercise scheduled around August, it is highly likely that the FOC verification will not be conducted. South Korea has strongly presented to the U.S. side that the exercise should be conducted normally as much as possible, as the FOC verification this year is expected to lead to determining the timing of the operational control transfer. However, the U.S. side reportedly prefers to focus on Fight Tonight (constant combat readiness) and combined readiness posture checks rather than FOC verification.

The government initially pledged to transfer operational control "within the term in 2022" but later revised it to "early implementation," showing a strong will to determine the "transfer timing" within the term if possible.

This joint exercise will be the first conducted since the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration in the United States. It is also seen as a gauge that could influence security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea-U.S. relations. Some argue for postponing the joint exercises to restore inter-Korean relations, which is why this debate exists.

Previously, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un stated at the 8th Party Congress report in December last year that depending on the South's attitude, relations could return to the "spring days three years ago," setting the suspension of joint exercises as a precondition. North Korea, which has been extremely sensitive to joint exercises, is being closely watched to see if it will intensify its opposition during this exercise period.