[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Swimming Defection... Questions Piling Up One After Another

General Park Jung-hwan, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, attended the National Defense Committee plenary session at the National Assembly on the 17th and reported on the situation of the defector from the 22nd Division. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on the 16th that a North Korean man is presumed to have swum across the sea near the Unification Observatory in Goseong, Gangwon Province, but questions continue to arise one after another.

According to the military on the 23rd, the man found in the civilian control line (CCL) area of Gangwon Province on the 16th wore a Mugeori diving suit and flippers at night on the 15th and swam for six hours to reach the East Sea shore on our side. At that time, the seawater temperature recorded at the Sokcho Beach marine observation point was 6.27℃. The Joint Chiefs explained that the weather at the time of crossing was 15% moonlight, visibility was 6 km, the current direction was from north to south at 0.2 knots (0.37 km/h), seawater temperature was 6?8℃, and the west wind was strong at 10?13 m/s.

According to the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency website, the current was flowing northward in the early morning of the 16th. However, the Joint Chiefs announced that the current was flowing from north to south at the time of crossing.

Regarding the suggestion that the East Sea current flows from south to north in winter, they responded, "According to the Navy's Marine Information Unit data, it flows from north to south," and "Usually, wood or floating objects drift from north to south."

The Joint Chiefs cited reasons such as the current flowing from north to south at the time of crossing, the defector's involvement in fishing, and the possibility that wearing thick clothes under the diving suit generated buoyancy.

A Joint Chiefs official emphasized, "Although the waves were high that day, the current was from north to south, and given the defector's familiarity with the sea, swimming was possible," adding, "He was engaged in fishing-related side jobs and was accustomed to water."

However, the Mugeori diving suit the man was wearing is usually worn by fishermen when collecting seafood. There are criticisms that it is hard to accept that a civilian swam against the current for six hours in cold water wearing a Mugeori diving suit, which is not a professional diving suit.

However, according to the 'survival time according to seawater temperature' data analyzed by the military based on U.S. Navy data, even with a waterproof suit, the survival time at 8℃ seawater temperature is 2 hours and 15 minutes. At 6℃, it is 1 hour and 45 minutes, and at 7℃, only 2 hours.

After arriving at the beach, the man walked to the Jejin checkpoint 5 km away. The CCTV at Jejin checkpoint recorded the time as around 4:20 a.m. Having roamed our area for about three hours, he rested briefly before being found by the military, and reportedly expressed his intention to defect. In other words, during the three hours of walking, he did not meet anyone to express his defection intention.

However, the 22nd Division, the jurisdictional unit, was conducting training in the Goseong area from the 15th to the 19th, right after the Lunar New Year holidays. During this period, large-scale movements of military equipment, vehicles, and troops, including tanks, were taking place along National Route 7 and local roads. It is difficult to understand how the man walking along Route 7 did not encounter anyone for three hours.

Regarding this, the Joint Chiefs said, "There is a rumor in North Korea that our military shoots immediately when they see defectors," adding, "Therefore, it is highly likely he avoided people while coming down."

The fact that the man is in his 20s also raises suspicion. The usual service period in the North Korean military is 10 years, and for special forces, it is 13 years. This means the probability of a North Korean man in his 20s being a civilian is very low. The military authorities did not specify the man's age but responded that they would not refute the media reports stating he is in his 20s.

In particular, the Joint Chiefs did not disclose the exact occupation the man had in North Korea, citing ongoing joint intelligence investigations. However, they explained that besides his main job, he was involved in fishing-related side work and was familiar with water.

Additionally, the Joint Chiefs explained that they were unaware of the drainage channels created when the Donghae Line railway was opened. The 22nd Division, where the incident occurred, did not include the three drainage channels in their management list. However, since the engineering unit was involved in the Donghae Line railway construction and had the blueprints, it is hard to accept that the unit did not secure them. Moreover, it is suspicious that they did not notice the drainage channels despite their diameter being 90 cm.

A Joint Chiefs official said, "When the Donghae Line was opened, concrete walls were built, and three drainage channels were installed under those walls," adding, "The entrances on the coastal side do not protrude and are integrated with the wall surface, so they are not identifiable even when viewed from above."