'Burma' Sanctions or China Containment... Biden's First Diplomatic Test

Biden Calls It an "Attack on Democracy"
Refers to Myanmar as 'Burma,' Denying Current Military Regime
Concerns Over Close Ties with China When Applying Pressure

▲President Joe Biden of the United States [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] U.S. President Joe Biden faces his first major test in foreign policy due to the Myanmar coup crisis. President Biden described it as "an attack on democracy" and hinted at sanctions, but applying extensive sanctions risks pushing Myanmar closer to China, which would inevitably disrupt the Biden administration's China containment strategy.

Regarding the Myanmar coup crisis, U.S. media unanimously assessed that President Biden is on the test bench. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 1st (local time) analyzed, "The Myanmar coup is a test for President Biden," adding, "It is a delicate situation requiring a response that does not push Myanmar closer to China." The Washington Post (WP) also pointed out, "The Myanmar coup is a test of Biden and America's role as a defender of democracy."

On the same day, President Biden issued a statement directly hinting at the possibility of sanctions. He defined the Myanmar situation as "a direct attack on democratic transition and the rule of law," and warned, "The U.S. lifted decades of sanctions on Burma based on democratic progress," adding, "Reversing this progress will require an immediate review of our sanctions laws and authorities, and appropriate measures will follow."

In the statement, referring to the country as ‘Burma,’ the name used before military rule rather than the current official name, emphasized the non-recognition of the military's seizure of power.

CNN, citing sources, reported that the U.S. government is also discussing whether to officially classify the Myanmar situation as a coup. The U.S. automatically suspends foreign aid to countries where the regime has been overthrown by a coup. CNN explained that unlike Europe, the U.S. is carefully considering whether to quickly designate this situation as a coup.

Myanmar’s democracy was one of the hallmark achievements of the Obama administration, when Biden was vice president. After the National League for Democracy, led by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in the 2015 general election ending military rule, the Obama administration lifted most sanctions by September 2016.

Danny Russel, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Obama administration, evaluated, "This Myanmar crisis determines the contrasting competing models between Biden’s defense of democracy and Xi Jinping’s support for authoritarianism."

Although the U.S. has issued warnings suggesting it could reinstate sanctions lifted on Myanmar following the military coup, implementing sanctions is expected to be difficult.

If isolated Myanmar moves closer to China, it will inevitably disrupt the Biden administration’s China policy. Unlike the U.S., China is taking a wait-and-see approach to the situation, which could further complicate U.S. intervention.

China holds significant influence over Myanmar. Even before the democratic government took office in 2015, China maintained close ties with the Myanmar military. According to Bloomberg News, China is the second-largest investor in Myanmar and accounts for one-third of Myanmar’s trade, which is ten times that of the U.S.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson issued a principled statement urging "all parties in Myanmar to properly handle conflicts," showing a significant difference in stance from the international community.

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing Chinese military sources, reported, "China will only observe the situation in Myanmar and will not take any action."

Especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, relations between Myanmar and China have strengthened further. Earlier this month, Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, who visited Myanmar, promised to supply China-developed COVID-19 vaccines to Myanmar early. With Western countries’ support virtually cut off since the pandemic, this move by the Chinese government has increased Myanmar’s dependence on China.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting this morning to discuss the Myanmar situation. UN spokesperson St?phane Dujarric stated, "UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres strongly condemned the detention of State Counsellor Suu Kyi and others by the Myanmar military," and added, "The UN calls for the release of all those detained by the Myanmar military."