Maintaining Government Control Until the 5th Year of Term Is Key... Ruling Party Presidential Candidates' Campaign to Win 'Pro-Moon Jae-in' Votes Also a Variable
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] "I do not agree with comparing the latter half of the term to descending a mountain. The course we must take is to keep climbing endlessly upward and finally stop at the summit on the last day of the term."
President Moon Jae-in's remark upon his appointment as Chief of Staff at the Blue House on March 12, 2007, is a message that allows us to gauge the mindset he intends to maintain during the remaining year of his term. Under this principle, the Blue House is drawing up a national governance blueprint based on the premise that control over state affairs will be maintained through the 'fifth year of the term.'
The major tasks are threefold: stabilizing the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, and stabilizing the real estate market. To respond efficiently, it is essential to hold the reins of state affairs not only this year but also until just before the presidential election in March next year. The key issue remains COVID-19.
This year, too, may begin and end with this issue. To achieve the goal of forming 'herd immunity' by November through vaccination starting in February, national efforts must be concentrated on solving COVID-19, which may lead to neglect of other pressing matters.
The peace process on the Korean Peninsula, including resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, is a task President Moon cannot abandon. At the New Year's press conference on the 18th, President Moon stated, "I am willing to meet Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea anytime and anywhere."
For another dramatic political event like a South-North summit to be reenacted, an appropriate environment must be established, but it is uncertain whether the Biden administration in the U.S. will prioritize the North Korean nuclear issue among international concerns.
Real estate stabilization is also an element that makes President Moon anxious in terms of 'successfully concluding the term.' Having experienced losing power due to a 'real estate backlash' during the participatory government era, it is a 'fire on the doorstep' for President Moon. Starting with the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's real estate supply measures to be announced before the Lunar New Year holiday, the battle over real estate is expected to remain a key variable influencing the course of state affairs this year.
Another point of interest is that the absence of a strong presidential candidate with a clear 'pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in)' color paradoxically serves as a buffer reducing the risk of a lame-duck period.
Ruling party presidential candidates are expected to devote efforts to courting pro-Moon voters even to pass the party primaries. This is a different picture from past administrations where internal divisions within the ruling party engulfed the fifth year of the term.
Professor Park Sang-chul of Kyonggi University's Graduate School of Political Studies commented that to avoid repeating the unfortunate end-of-term experiences of past presidents, "It is important to avoid appointing only comfortable people, not to leave too large a political legacy, and to enhance the completeness of even small achievements," adding, "We must prepare the last year without losing the initial resolve by reflecting on 'why we became president.'"
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