[Politics, That Day...] Oh Se-hoon and Na Kyung-won, Who Had Their Names on the Seoul Mayor Ballot, Face Off for the First Time...

2010 Hannara Party Seoul Mayoral Primary, 'Incumbent Premium' Effect... Rematch 11 Years Later Amid Changing Political Environment Draws Attention to Results

Editor's Note[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]
‘Politics, That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason politicians dream of becoming the ‘Mayor of Seoul’ is the perception that it is a gateway to the presidential election. Seoul, the capital where the Blue House and the National Assembly are located, is the heart of Korean politics. Among the past mayors of Seoul, there has even been a person who actually became president (former President Lee Myung-bak). The equation ‘Mayor of Seoul = leading presidential candidate’ has naturally been established.

Many want to become the Mayor of Seoul, but not everyone is given the opportunity to challenge. This is evident even from the history of the party that inherits the roots of the conservative party. Based on the People Power Party lineage, only four people have been candidates for Seoul mayor in the past 15 years since 2006.

The politicians are Chung Mong-joon, Kim Moon-soo, Oh Se-hoon, and Na Kyung-won. Other politicians have not only failed to reach the position of Seoul mayor but have not even had their names on the ballot. Among these four politicians, two threw their hats into the ring for the Seoul mayoral by-election on April 7, 2021.

Former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former Liberty Korea Party floor leader Na Kyung-won are expected to run in the People Power Party’s primary for Seoul mayor. These two, who are presidential candidate-level figures, have lowered their level to meet on the battlefield of the Seoul mayoral primary. They are the leading candidates of the broad opposition along with Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party.

Both former Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former floor leader Na Kyung-won have experience running for Seoul mayor and achieving high vote shares. They are practically prepared candidates. Their head-to-head could be a battle that determines their political fate.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Interestingly, this is not the first time that former Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former floor leader Na Kyung-won have competed for the single Seoul mayor candidate position. Eleven years ago, in the 5th simultaneous local elections in 2010, they competed for the Seoul mayor candidacy.

The 2010 Seoul mayoral election was a fiercely contested election, recorded as one of the closest races in history. At that time, the ruling party, the Grand National Party, had a three-way contest among Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Representative Na Kyung-won, and Representative Kim Choong-hwan. Representative Kim Choong-hwan was a resilient politician who was re-elected three times as the head of Gangdong District Office in Seoul.

At that time, Representative Na Kyung-won gained momentum by successfully unifying with Representative Won Hee-ryong as the Seoul mayor candidate. Attention was focused on whether she could surpass the incumbent premium held by Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

On May 3, 2010, the fateful showdown took place at the Jamsil Indoor Gymnasium in Seoul. Mayor Oh Se-hoon was in a position where winning the primary as the Grand National Party’s Seoul mayor candidate and then the general election could propel him as a strong presidential contender. Representative Na Kyung-won had a chance to significantly boost her political status if she defeated the incumbent mayor in the party primary.

There was speculation that if Representative Na Kyung-won gained momentum based on the unification effect, it could be a winnable contest. However, the incumbent premium for the Seoul mayor was stronger than expected. The internal primary to select the Grand National Party’s Seoul mayor candidate ended in a one-sided victory in both party and public opinion.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Candidate Oh Se-hoon overwhelmingly defeated his rivals with 67.2% of the in-person votes. Candidate Na Kyung-won received 25.8%, and Candidate Kim Choong-hwan remained at 7.0%. The opinion polls showed an even wider gap. Candidate Oh Se-hoon received 73.0%, Candidate Na Kyung-won 21.3%, and Candidate Kim Choong-hwan 5.7%.

Ultimately, the final tally showed Candidate Oh Se-hoon winning with 68.4%, defeating Na Kyung-won with 24.9% and Kim Choong-hwan with 6.7%, becoming the 2010 Seoul mayor candidate. Although this was the result of their first head-to-head, their political standings have changed significantly over the past 11 years.

Politician Oh Se-hoon has had no successful public office election since winning the Seoul mayoral election in 2010. He ran for Seoul National Assembly seats in the 20th general election in 2016 and the 21st general election in 2020 but lost both times. On the other hand, politician Na Kyung-won rose politically to the level of a presidential candidate while serving as the floor leader of the Liberty Korea Party.

The 11-year-old results are only a reference. Considering the political reality of 2021, it is difficult to predict the outcome. As of the deadline for preliminary candidate registration for the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral by-election, 14 people have applied, including former Mayor Oh Se-hoon, former floor leader Na Kyung-won, former Representatives Lee Jong-gu, Kim Seon-dong, Oh Shin-hwan, Seocho District Mayor Cho Eun-hee, former Songpa District Mayor Park Chun-hee, Professor Kim Geun-sik of Gyeongnam National University, former Shanghai Consul General Kim Jeong-gi, former Goyang-jeong Party Committee Chair Cho Dae-won, and Honorary Chairman of the Korea Foreign Enterprises Association Lee Seung-hyun.

Will former Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former floor leader Na Kyung-won form the expected two-strong structure in the party primary? Will a dark horse emerge to surpass them? The competition surrounding the selection of the main opposition party’s Seoul mayor candidate is expected to be an interesting point to watch.