[The Editors' Verdict] Will Carbon Neutrality 2050 Remain a Political Slogan?

In the face of the reality of the climate crisis, carbon neutrality is the key issue opening the 2020s. President Moon Jae-in declared carbon neutrality by 2050 in his policy speech to the National Assembly last October. The new U.S. President Joe Biden also set 2050 carbon neutrality as a national agenda. Even China declared carbon neutrality by 2060.

Carbon neutrality means balancing carbon emissions and absorption so that the net emissions become 'zero.' To achieve carbon neutrality, either carbon emissions must be reduced or the emitted carbon must be absorbed through forestation or carbon capture. There is no prediction of how much carbon South Korea will emit by 2050. However, the 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Roadmap states that the 'Business As Usual (BAU)' greenhouse gas emission forecast, meaning if no measures are taken, is expected to be 850 million tons, and it aims to reduce this by 37% to limit emissions to 536 million tons.

According to this roadmap, reductions through greenhouse gas absorption are very minimal. Greenhouse gas absorption is estimated at 10 million tons through carbon capture and 38 million tons through forests and overseas reduction sources. The amount that can be absorbed by forests is roughly evaluated at 16 to 22 million tons. Therefore, the amount of carbon South Korea can absorb is only about 4% of the 2030 BAU.

In other words, to realize carbon neutrality by 2030, carbon emissions must be drastically reduced to around 30 million tons. If carbon neutrality is to be achieved 20 years later in 2050, carbon absorption sources must be increased at least 20 times compared to 2030, or carbon emissions must be reduced to one-twentieth. Of course, it is also possible to balance appropriately by increasing carbon absorption by 10% annually and reducing carbon emissions by 7% annually to reach 2050.

To reduce carbon emissions, energy saving, efficiency improvement, and energy transition must be implemented. Efficiency improvement has been a consistently emphasized method. The International Energy Agency also estimates that greenhouse gases that can be reduced through efficiency improvements exceed those reduced through renewable energy. The 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Roadmap aims to reduce about 200 million tons in the three major carbon emission sectors: industry, buildings, and transportation, which corresponds to a 25% reduction compared to BAU in 2030.

To achieve this, carbon emission reductions must steadily increase by 2.5% annually through energy efficiency improvements. Even this must be more than doubled after 2030 to barely approach 2050 carbon neutrality.

Energy transition means converting fossil fuels to electricity and supplying electricity through zero-carbon energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power. According to the 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Roadmap, the reduction amount through energy transition is up to 58 million tons. This is about 17% of the expected emissions of 333 million tons in the sectors where energy transition to electricity and heat is possible. The plan is to replace fossil fuels with zero-carbon electricity over the next 10 years and reduce carbon emissions by 2% annually. This rate of transition is far from sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality.

If we truly want carbon neutrality, a 2050 carbon neutrality roadmap must be established immediately. However, it will be difficult to achieve without groundbreaking energy transition or greenhouse gas absorption measures. People applaud the 2050 carbon neutrality goal. There is no better topic for politicians. Also, 2050 is a distant future for them.

However, if a definite plan is not made right now, 2050 carbon neutrality is likely to remain a political slogan. Unfortunately, the cry of Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg at the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit, "Do not dare to steal my dreams and my future," seems unlikely to be fulfilled.

Jung Dong-wook, Professor, Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Chung-Ang University