[AKYUNG Poll] Opposition Seoul Mayoral Candidates, Ahn Cheol-soo Leads... Na Kyung-won and Oh Se-hoon 15%p Behind

Asia Economy Commissioned 'Pan-Opposition Seoul Mayor Candidate Suitability Survey' Results
Ahn Cheol-soo 28.5% ＞Na Kyung-won 12.9%·Oh Se-hoon 12.6%

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hye-min] In a suitability survey for the opposition candidates for Seoul mayor, Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, led former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon by more than 15 percentage points. This marks a significant change from two months ago when Oh and Ahn were in a close race within the margin of error.

According to a public opinion poll commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting, conducted on June 2-3 among 1,006 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), 28.5% of respondents said Ahn was the most suitable opposition candidate for Seoul mayor. He was followed by former lawmaker Na at 12.9% and former Mayor Oh at 12.6%. Other candidates included Seocho District Mayor Cho Eun-hee (7.1%) and former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop (4.7%). The response “no suitable candidate” accounted for 21.2%.

This contrasts with a similar survey conducted in early November last year, where former Mayor Oh led Ahn within the margin of error. Since then, Ahn officially declared his candidacy and attracted political attention, which is interpreted as having taken the initiative in the by-election race.

Ahn received balanced support from both men (32.9%) and women (24.5%). He showed the highest suitability rating across all age groups, especially among those in their 30s (31.1%), significantly ahead of Na (8.6%) and Oh (7.9%).

By region, Ahn led in all areas except the downtown area (Yongsan-gu, Jongno-gu, Jung-gu). In the downtown area, Na ranked first with 30.6%. In the northeastern area, which includes Gwangjin-gu where former Mayor Oh serves as the party branch chief, Ahn led with 28.2%. In the southwestern area, which includes Dongjak-gu, Na’s former constituency, Ahn held a strong lead with 30.9%.

Ahn’s strong position was evident not only among supporters of the People’s Party but also among supporters of the People Power Party. Among respondents who support the People Power Party, 42.4% supported Ahn. Na followed with 23.6%, and Oh with 16.4%. Ahn also received high support of 21.8% among the so-called independent voters who answered that they have no party affiliation or were unsure.

This survey was conducted on June 2-3 among eligible voters aged 18 or older residing in Seoul, with an overall response rate of 6.7%, totaling 1,006 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of November 2020, according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.