Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Director of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency), is holding a regular briefing on the afternoon of the 14th regarding the domestic status of COVID-19 cases and the interim investigation results of confirmed patients. [Image source=Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] The quarantine authorities have predicted that the daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea could reach up to 1,200 due to the impact of the third wave of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19).
Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH), stated at a regular briefing on the afternoon of the 14th, "We calculate the real-time effective reproduction number daily, and as of yesterday, the reproduction number is about 1.28," adding, "Based on this, we estimate that the number of patients will range between 950 and 1,200."
The effective reproduction number indicates how many people one confirmed patient infects additionally; a value of 1.28 means one confirmed patient infects 1.28 others. If this number is above 1, the spread continues and the number of patients increases.
"There is room to reduce the scale of cases through social distancing effects and quarantine measures"
Head Jung explained, "Many experts are analyzing with various models," and "Therefore, the predicted numbers vary greatly among experts." She added, "If 'n-th transmission' is blocked through adherence to social distancing, epidemiological investigations, and contact management, there is considerable potential to reduce the number of confirmed cases far below the predicted figures," emphasizing, "The number of patients will be determined by whether preemptive testing, contact tracing and blocking, and strict compliance with social distancing levels 2.5 and 2 are observed."
Referring to the previous day's domestic new confirmed cases exceeding 1,000 for the first time with 1,030 cases, she said, "With the onset of winter, the third wave of COVID-19 is intensifying," and stressed, "This is a different pattern from the first and second waves, and we consider this the most critical situation since the outbreak of COVID-19." She further explained, "Unlike previous waves characterized by cluster outbreaks from a few major infection sources, this wave is believed to be driven by mild or asymptomatic infections accumulated in the community over more than 10 months, occurring through various everyday situations."
Recent 1-week daily average confirmed cases at 662... Increase of 174.3 cases compared to previous week
Concern over 10 percentage point rise in patients aged 60 and above
According to the quarantine authorities, the daily average number of domestic confirmed cases from December 6 to 12 was 662.0, an increase of 174.3 from the previous week (November 29 to December 5, 487.7). Regarding infection routes over the recent week, contact with previously confirmed cases was the highest at 2,117 cases (43.8%), followed by cluster outbreaks at 1,000 cases (20.7%), hospitals and nursing facilities at 417 cases (8.6%), and overseas inflow at 194 cases (4.0%). Cases under investigation for infection routes numbered 1,099 (22.8%). The daily average number of confirmed cases aged 60 and above was 219 during the recent week, increasing the proportion of patients aged 60 and above from 22.9% in the previous week to 32.0%.
Head Jung urged, "Cancel family and acquaintance gatherings as much as possible, and if attendance is unavoidable, always wear masks and minimize the duration of gatherings." She added, "If there are high-risk individuals aged 60 or older among cohabiting family members, special caution and management such as restricting visitors and careful attention to symptomatic individuals are necessary."
Supply contracts with two vaccine manufacturers expected within the year
AstraZeneca expected to be introduced the earliest
Management and support for antibody treatment development
The quarantine authorities anticipate signing supply contracts with two of the three COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers within this year. The government previously announced plans to secure a total of 44 million vaccine doses, including 10 million doses through the international project for joint vaccine purchase and distribution, the 'COVAX Facility,' and 34 million doses through individual negotiations with global pharmaceutical companies. Among these, four manufacturers have already agreed to advance purchases: AstraZeneca from the UK, and Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Janssen, and Moderna from the US.
Head Jung stated, "Purchase contracts have been completed for the COVAX Facility and AstraZeneca vaccines, and purchase commitments have been made for three other products, with contract reviews currently underway," adding, "We are aiming to complete contracts for at least two vaccines by the end of the year and are currently negotiating contract reviews."
She also predicted that AstraZeneca vaccines produced domestically would be introduced the earliest. Among COVID-19 treatments under development domestically, antibody treatments are expected to have the fastest development schedule. She said, "Antibody treatments are expected to prevent progression to severe disease and death if administered at the mild stage," and added, "We are continuously managing and supporting the development process."
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