Revealed in Video Conference with IMF Managing Director... Positive Outlook on Q4 Growth Rate
Optimistic View on China's 7-8% Economic Growth Next Year
[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] Premier Li Keqiang of China expressed confidence that the Chinese economy will achieve positive growth this year.
According to Chinese media such as People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency on the 9th, Premier Li explained the current economic situation of China during a video conference with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the previous day and expressed confidence in positive growth. This is the first time the Chinese leadership has used the word "confidence" regarding economic growth this year to the heads of major international economic organizations.
Due to the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the Chinese economy recorded a negative growth of 6.8% in the first quarter. Afterwards, it achieved a 'V'-shaped rebound with 3.2% growth in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the Chinese economy grew by 4.9%, moving towards normalization.
Premier Li's confidence in positive growth of the Chinese economy this year implies that the economy will grow by more than 5% in the fourth quarter. The dominant forecast is that the Chinese economy will grow in the 2% range this year.
During the meeting, Premier Li said, "Although the global economy is showing signs of recovery after COVID-19, uncertainties still exist," adding, "China will continue to promote epidemic prevention and control, as well as economic and social development, and will strive to keep the Chinese economy operating within a reasonable range."
He further stated, "China will continue efforts to promote the formation of multilateral agreements," and added, "We hope there will be opportunities for China to contribute to this."
Managing Director Georgieva responded, "China is playing an important role in the global economic recovery and in achieving low-carbon growth," and said, "We are willing to strengthen cooperation with China for multilateralism."
Expectations for the Chinese economy next year are even higher. Within China, forecasts of 7 to 8% growth next year are openly discussed.
The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF), an institution under Renmin University, predicted that as the Chinese economy continues to recover next year, the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will reach 8.1%.
At a recent China Reform Forum, Liu Sujin, Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), also forecasted that assuming normal conditions next year, China could achieve an economic growth rate in the 7 to 8% range (reflecting the base effect).
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