Moon's Approval Rating Hits 'Lowest' in Gallup Survey... Next Presidential Election Shows 'Regime Change' Advantage [Gallup]

-President Job Performance Evaluation: 'Doing Well' 39% vs 'Doing Poorly' 51%
-Party Support Ratings: Deobureo Minjudang 33%, Gungminuihim 20%, Jeonguidang 6%
-Next Presidential Election: 'Maintain Current Administration' 41% vs 'Change Administration' 44%

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] President Moon Jae-in's approval rating for his administration has hit its lowest point since taking office, according to both Realmeter and Gallup Korea surveys. Regarding the next presidential election, support for opposition candidates aiming for a regime change was higher than for ruling party candidates. This appears to be influenced by the aftermath of real estate measures causing a rental crisis, followed by the conflict between Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl.

Gallup announced on the 4th that a survey conducted from the 1st to the 3rd among 1,000 adults aged 18 and over showed that 39% of respondents gave a positive evaluation of President Moon's job performance. This is the lowest since his inauguration, matching the levels during the "Cho Kuk incident" in October last year and the real estate controversy in August this year. Negative evaluations rose by 3 percentage points to 51%. The gap between positive and negative evaluations was 12 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

By age group, positive and negative ratings were closely split among those aged 18-29 (40% positive, 41% negative) and those in their 40s (47% positive, 46% negative), while negative evaluations were higher among those in their 30s (39% positive, 54% negative), 50s (38% positive, 55% negative), and 60 and older (33% positive, 57% negative). Among political party supporters, negative evaluations were also prominent among the centrist non-affiliated group. Among those without a current party affiliation, positive evaluations were only 21%, while negative evaluations reached 61%.

Among those who negatively evaluated the president's job performance (513 respondents), the reasons cited included "real estate policy" (22%), "conflict between the Ministry of Justice and the prosecution," and "generally inadequate" (both 9%), "personnel issues" (8%), "lack of solutions to economic and livelihood problems" (7%), "poor communication" (6%), "lack of leadership and incompetence" (5%), "arbitrary, one-sided, biased," "inadequate COVID-19 response," and "national division and conflict" (all 3%).

In particular, real estate issues have remained the top concern since last Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving), and direct mentions of the "conflict between the Ministry of Justice and the prosecution" have increased since last week. Gallup analyzed that "as the clash between the heads of the two institutions has prolonged and intensified, some responsibility is also attributed to the president who appointed them."

Party support ratings were 33% for the Democratic Party, 20% for the People Power Party, 6% for the Justice Party, and 3% each for the People Party and the Open Democratic Party. Compared to the previous week, support for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party dropped by 3 and 2 percentage points respectively, while the Justice Party rose by 1 percentage point.

Meanwhile, when asked whether they agreed more with "maintaining the current administration" or "regime change" in the next presidential election, 41% said "it is better for the ruling party candidate to win to maintain the current administration," 44% said "it is better for the opposition candidate to win to change the administration," and 15% withheld their opinion.

Support for maintaining the current administration was relatively high among Democratic Party supporters (81%), progressives (71%), residents of Gwangju and Jeolla regions (67%), and those in their 40s (53%). Support for regime change was higher among People Power Party supporters (93%), conservatives (67%), residents of Daegu and Gyeongbuk (60%), and those aged 60 and above (53%). Among non-affiliated voters, 49% favored regime change compared to 20% for maintaining the current administration. The centrist group, which was evenly split last month, leaned toward regime change in this survey.

In the next political leader preference survey, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung led with 20%, followed by Democratic Party Leader Lee Nak-yeon at 16%, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl at 13%, and People Party Leader Ahn Cheol-soo at 4%.

This survey contacted 6,606 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, with a final 1,000 respondents completing the survey, resulting in a 15% response rate. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.