[Friday Story] Will President Moon Find a 'Clever Move'... Yoon's Discipline, Choo's Position, and Cabinet Reshuffle

Go Amateur 4-Dan Level President Moon, A Move to Overcome Political Crisis... Cabinet Reshuffle Focused on Responding to Public Sentiment

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The time has come to organize the chaotic 'stones' placed on the board of politics. The blueprint for the battle that determines the fate of the administration ultimately starts with the 'one move' chosen by President Moon Jae-in. It is a choice between advancing, retreating, or taking a third path. The solution to the 'conflict' between Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl is no different.

President Moon Jae-in, who likely possesses the skill level of a 4-dan Go player, has acquired the wisdom of Go through countless matches. This is precisely the time when a brilliant move is needed to overcome the crisis.

Regarding the disciplinary procedure against Prosecutor General Yoon, President Moon's request to "not prejudge the conclusion and calmly observe" is a strategic pause. The Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee has been postponed to the 10th. The Blue House has bought time. The ruling and opposition parties have overcome a major hurdle in the National Assembly by agreeing on the New Year's budget bill.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Now, the Blue House must address its pending tasks. It is time to reorganize the cabinet that will serve the remainder of President Moon's term. There is no shortage of personnel factors. The by-election for Seoul mayor is also one of them. Cabinet reshuffles are messages from the president to public sentiment. Past presidents have carried out reshuffles when they wanted to signal that they were listening to public opinion. Timing is crucial for reshuffles. Missing the right moment diminishes the effect.

Professor Lee Jun-han of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Incheon National University said, "Given President Moon's disposition, it seems unlikely there will be a reshuffle just to change the atmosphere," adding, "The key will be whether the new figures can implement policies in the direction the public hopes for." While a reshuffle at the level predicted inside and outside the political circle will take place, it is unlikely that a surprise reshuffle will be carried out.

The problem is that the flow of public opinion is not normal. A poll showed President Moon's approval rating at an all-time low. Even inside the Blue House, recent public opinion trends are being viewed with tense eyes.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Park Sang-chul of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University advised, "A reform reshuffle at the level the public desires could be brought forward," and "A reshuffle that can provide answers to the issues of Minister Chu, Prosecutor General Yoon, and real estate problems is necessary." He added, "It is necessary to have an inclusive reshuffle that embodies the meaning of inclusion and also gives ministerial posts to the opposition party, and Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun should recommend such content to the president."

This means that not only the timing of the reshuffle but also the blueprint design is important. Considering the Blue House situation, the verification process through personnel lines is already prepared. The recent appointment of Lee Yong-gu as Deputy Minister of Justice was not a result of a sudden personnel verification. It was announced with accumulated data and verification results on the successor selection already in hand.

The upcoming reshuffle will involve at least 3 to 4 ministries and could be moderate or even larger in scale. Minister of Health and Welfare Park Neung-hoo, Minister of Employment and Labor Lee Jae-gap, and Minister of Gender Equality and Family Lee Jung-ok are mentioned as primary replacement candidates. Minister Park, a member of President Moon's inaugural cabinet, has held the position for over three years since appointment. Minister Lee Jae-gap, appointed in August 2018, has also served for over two years. Regardless of individual evaluations, it is time for their replacement.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun, who is mentioned as a ruling party candidate for Seoul mayor, could also be included among those to be replaced. Considering that preliminary candidate registration for Seoul mayor begins on the 8th, there are talks that the reshuffle is imminent.

If Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kim Hyun-mi and Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae are included in the replacements, it would carry political significance beyond a moderate reshuffle. This could be interpreted as a message to resolve the ruling party's Achilles' heel issues of real estate controversy and the 'Chu-Yoon conflict.' However, replacing Minister Kim would imply admitting failure in real estate policy, which is a variable factor.

The timing of Minister Chu's replacement is also crucial. Replacing her before the Ministry of Justice disciplinary committee could be interpreted as a signal of retreating from prosecutorial reform. Choi Kang-wook, leader of the Open Democratic Party, said in a KBS Radio interview on the 4th, "Minister Chu's opinion that she will never step down until prosecutorial reform is completed must be respected," and "Once the major hurdle of prosecutorial reform is overcome, another phase may arise."

Considering President Moon's perception of prosecutorial reform, the prevailing opinion is that it will be difficult to replace Minister Chu before the controversy is resolved.

However, there remains a possibility that President Moon, emphasizing procedural legitimacy regarding Prosecutor General Yoon's disciplinary process on the 3rd, might first remove Minister Chu and then wait for the disciplinary committee's judgment on Prosecutor General Yoon. This could be a political gamble to amplify the message of fairness.