Emphasizing Procedural Legitimacy but Deepening Cheongwadae Dilemma

'Chu-Yoon' Conflict Worsens Public Opinion, Ministry of Justice Disciplinary Committee Meeting Likely Postponed to 4th... Presidential Approval Rating Falls to 30% Range, 'National Administration Burden' Continues

[Asia Economy Reporters Ryu Jeong-min and Son Seon-hee] The aftermath of the 'Choo Mi-ae-led prosecutorial reform' is engulfing the Blue House. This scene was anticipated from the moment Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae chose to initiate disciplinary procedures against Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. The Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee scheduled for the 4th may also be postponed. The political risk that hampers national governance momentum is expected to continue for the time being.

The public opinion trend is also unusual. According to Realmeter on the 3rd, the approval rating for the president's national administration dropped to the 30% range. Notably, the traditional support base for President Moon Jae-in is significantly shaken.

In the Honam region, a stronghold of the ruling party, the drop in positive evaluations reached 13.9 percentage points. The increase in negative evaluations also recorded 10.0 percentage points. Positive evaluations among women, a solid support group for President Moon, fell by 9.1 percentage points, and the progressive faction also experienced a decline of 7.8 percentage points.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As the defection of traditional support bases emerges, albeit prematurely, the keyword 'lame duck' is being mentioned again inside and outside the political circles. The ruling party's stance on the 'Choo-Yoon' conflict is complex. The political settlement proposals suggested by some within the ruling party are already fading from the options.

On the previous day, President Moon appointed Lee Yong-gu, a non-prosecutorial former judge and former Legal Affairs Director at the Ministry of Justice, as the vacant Deputy Minister of Justice. Deputy Minister Lee officially began his duties that day. Summarizing the Blue House's stance, President Moon believes the disciplinary committee for Prosecutor General Yoon must be convened without prejudging the outcome.

The general sentiment within the ruling party is that a high-level disciplinary action against Prosecutor General Yoon is inevitable and should ultimately lead to dismissal. This represents a somewhat different temperature from that of the Blue House.

Deputy Minister Lee has attracted attention as the key figure controlling the Ministry of Justice's disciplinary committee, but the chairperson of the disciplinary committee is expected to be someone else. This aligns with the Blue House's recognition that the disciplinary process must guarantee legitimacy, objectivity, and fairness.

However, a senior Blue House official denied speculation that President Moon instructed Deputy Minister Lee not to serve as the disciplinary committee chairperson, stating, "That is not true. The Blue House and the disciplinary committee are unrelated," and added, "The process will be conducted fairly, independently, and transparently."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Prosecutor General Yoon's side is requesting a change of the disciplinary committee date on the 4th, citing procedural issues. The Blue House's position is that the decision on the date change is a matter for the Ministry of Justice. Changing the date contradicts the ruling party's desire to resolve the controversy early. However, if the disciplinary committee proceeds on the 4th, it could be embroiled in controversy over procedural legitimacy violations.

It is highly likely that the request from Prosecutor General Yoon's side will be accepted. The aftermath of the 'Choo-Yoon conflict' is a scenario that will inevitably continue until mid-month. If the disciplinary committee issues a severe disciplinary decision and Prosecutor General Yoon legally challenges it, the conflict could escalate into an irreparable phase. President Moon will have no choice but to issue a message in some form, but whether that will completely resolve the controversy is doubtful.

If the trend of public opinion does not reverse, it could negatively impact the national governance outlook for next year as well. According to a public opinion survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of tbs Traffic Broadcasting from the 30th of last month to the 2nd of this month, targeting 1,508 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, the positive evaluation rate of President Moon's administration fell to 37.4%. This is a 6.4 percentage point drop compared to the previous week's aggregate. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

The general analysis is that the resurgence of COVID-19 and real estate controversies, along with the Choo-Yoon conflict, are factors burdening national governance and causing the decline in approval ratings.

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "The Realmeter poll sensitively reacts to political and social issues at the time, and the survey method may have excessively reflected the decline. Whether the ripple effect prolongs or is short-lived and returns to normal will depend on how the situation is managed going forward."