Iran Revolutionary Guard Approves Bill... Also Rejects Nuclear Inspections
Hardliners Take Lead After Death of Nuclear Scientist
Iran Nuclear Issue Handled Since Biden Administration Inauguration
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Iran has decided to immediately increase the level of uranium enrichment and refuse nuclear inspections if sanctions such as oil exports are not lifted within two months, following the death of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This is the first reciprocal measure at the government level since Fakhrizadeh's death. For U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who has expressed a willingness to resolve the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue, this presents a pressing challenge to address the Iran issue promptly upon taking office.
According to the New York Times (NYT) on the 2nd (local time), the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which holds the final review authority over legislation in Iran, finalized a parliamentary bill that includes raising the uranium enrichment level. The day before, the Iranian parliament passed a response law to immediately raise the country's uranium enrichment level from the current 4.5% to 20%, and to refuse nuclear inspections if oil exports and financial transaction restrictions on Iran are not lifted within two months. The bill also includes provisions to stockpile 120 kg of uranium enriched to 20% annually. Although Iran claims this move is for peaceful purposes, it is realistically seen as a step closer to the level required for nuclear weapons production (90%).
The decision by the Revolutionary Guard Corps carries significant weight as it is an obligation that must be followed. When the bill passed the parliament the day before, the Associated Press (AP) interpreted it merely as a "sign of resistance to Fakhrizadeh's assassination," but upon reporting the approval of the related law, it assessed it as "an official policy of the Iranian government." Previously, the Iranian government expressed concerns that the Revolutionary Guard Corps' approval might negatively affect diplomatic relations, but as it is a decision by the highest decision-making body, it must be adhered to.
Iran's decision has further escalated the nuclear threat. David Albright, head of the U.S. Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), forecasted, "It is uncertain how long it will take for Iran's uranium enrichment level to reach 20%, but it could be possible within six months at the earliest." He added, "They have done this before, so they know how to do it," and warned, "If they pour all their resources into completing it within six months, it would be the worst-case scenario."
This decision is expected to place a significant burden on President-elect Biden, who is set to take office next month. Especially since he has stated since his candidacy that he would seek to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) through dialogue with Iran, Iran's aggressive stance is widely analyzed to make a resolution through dialogue even more difficult.
For now, the issue of nuclear inspections in Iran is likely to become the Biden administration's first priority immediately after taking office. However, if the administration lifts sanctions by meeting Iran's demands right after inauguration, it may face criticism for being swayed by hardliners in Iran. Henry Rome, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, an international political think tank, said, "The passage of this bill in Iran is a clear signal that Iran will not sit idly by and watch the Biden administration's policy toward Iran," adding, "Iran wants to be the Biden administration's top priority, and it is confident that its nuclear program will ensure that."
The Biden transition team is being extremely cautious in commenting on the Iran issue. Ned Price, spokesperson for the transition team, stated, "Considering that there is a sitting president (U.S. President Donald Trump), we decline to comment on developments in this matter," expressing a cautious stance.
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