[AKyeong Poll] Seoul Support Ratings: Democratic Party 34.9% vs People Power Party 24.7%

Asia Economy Commissioned 'Party Support Survey' Results
Overall Democratic Party 34.7% > People Power Party 24.8% > Independents 20.8%

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] In Seoul, where a by-election will be held in April next year, the support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea was found to be about 10 percentage points higher than that of the People Power Party. In Busan, the People Power Party led within the margin of error.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on November 28-29, surveying 1,000 voters aged 18 and over nationwide (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), party support rates were recorded as 34.7% for the Democratic Party and 24.8% for the People Power Party. The gap between the two parties was 9.9 percentage points. Other parties included the People’s Party at 7.1%, the Justice Party at 5.4%, and the Open Democratic Party at 4.9%. The so-called non-partisan group, who responded with 'no supporting party' or 'don’t know,' accounted for 20.8%.

Compared to the previous survey (November 15-16), the Democratic Party’s support decreased by 0.2 percentage points, and the People Power Party’s by 0.1 percentage points. The gap has been maintaining around 10% trendwise. Meanwhile, the proportion of non-partisan voters increased by 2 percentage points.

In Seoul and Busan, where the by-elections will take place in April next year, the Democratic Party was ahead of the People Power Party. In Seoul, the Democratic Party recorded 34.9%, and the People Power Party 24.7%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points, which is larger than the overall party support gap. It is interpreted that the Democratic Party’s support rate was positively influenced as public interest in real estate, a weakness for the Democratic Party, shifted to the issue of overcoming COVID-19. In Busan, including Ulsan and Gyeongnam, the Democratic Party recorded 31.9%, leading the People Power Party (28.5%) within the margin of error (2.4 percentage points).

In the Honam region (Gwangju and Jeolla), the Democratic Party recorded a support rate of 61.6%, showing an absolute dominance. On the other hand, in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK) region, the People Power Party’s support rate was 39.8%, far ahead of the Democratic Party’s 12.9%. In Incheon and Gyeonggi, the Democratic Party recorded 36%, and the People Power Party 24.1%. In Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong, the Democratic Party had 34.6%, and the People Power Party 17.5%, showing relatively higher support for the Democratic Party. In Gangwon and Jeju, the People Power Party (25.8%) led the Democratic Party (22.4%) within the margin of error.

By age group, the Democratic Party led the People Power Party in all age groups except those aged 60 and over. Especially in the 40s, the gap between the Democratic Party (41.5%) and the People Power Party (18.9%) was the largest at 22.6 percentage points. In the 60s, the People Power Party recorded 33.9%, and the Democratic Party 23.7%, with the People Power Party’s support rate 10.2 percentage points higher. Among those aged 18-29 and in their 30s, the gap between the two parties was 17.6 percentage points and 21.1 percentage points respectively, but the proportion of non-partisan voters was high at 26.5%.

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and over on November 28-29, with an overall response rate of 11.4%, and 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.