[AKYUNG Poll] 52% Say Yoon Seok-yeol's Suspension 'Inappropriate'... President Moon's Approval Rating Drops 2.6%p

Democratic Party Presidential Candidates Lead by 10-16 Percentage Points

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] A public opinion poll revealed that the majority responded that the suspension of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol was 'inappropriate,' while only 36% considered it 'appropriate.' Following this, President Moon Jae-in's approval rating showed a downward trend, dropping by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous survey (conducted on the 15th-16th of last month).

In four hypothetical one-on-one matchups between ruling party presidential candidates Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, and People Power Party candidates former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (running as a People Power candidate), the ruling party led by 10 to 16 percentage points in all cases. In the upcoming by-elections in April next year in Seoul and the Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam (PK) regions, the Democratic Party's support rate was surveyed to be 10 percentage points and over 3 percentage points higher than that of the People Power Party, respectively.

On the 1st, Asia Economy commissioned Win-Gi Korea Consulting to conduct a nationwide survey of 1,000 adults aged 18 and older from the 28th to 29th of last month (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). The results showed that 52.2% responded that the suspension of Prosecutor General Yoon was 'inappropriate,' while only 36.5% said it was 'appropriate.' By age group, except for those in their 40s, the majority considered it 'inappropriate.' Among Democratic Party supporters, 73.1% said it was 'appropriate,' but 13.3% responded 'inappropriate.' Conversely, 90.0% of People Power Party supporters responded that it was 'inappropriate.'

Regarding President Moon, 48.8% said they 'support' him, while 47.3% said they 'do not support,' showing a close split. Although the support rate leads by 1.5 percentage points, it has dropped by 2.6 percentage points compared to the same survey two weeks ago. It appears that the suspension of Prosecutor General Yoon and the resulting backlash within the prosecution have influenced this outcome.

When asked whom they would support if Lee Nak-yeon and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min ran as the next presidential candidates for the Democratic Party and People Power Party respectively, Lee Nak-yeon received 41.5%, and Yoo Seung-min 28.%. When Hong Joon-pyo ran as the People Power candidate, Lee Nak-yeon received 42.4%, and Hong Joon-pyo 30.2%. In both cases, Lee Nak-yeon led by 12 to 13 percentage points.

In a hypothetical matchup between Lee Jae-myung and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, Lee Jae-myung led by 9.5 percentage points with 41.7% to 32.2%. This was the narrowest margin among the four cases. On the other hand, when asked about a contest between Lee Jae-myung and Hong Joon-pyo, Lee Jae-myung led by 16 percentage points with 45.8% to 29.8%.

Two weeks ago, a similar survey asked about hypothetical one-on-one matchups between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung against Prosecutor General Yoon without mentioning party affiliation, resulting in a close race within the margin of error. This time, when former lawmakers Yoo Seung-min and Hong Joon-pyo, who ranked second and third respectively in the moderate conservative opposition presidential candidate suitability survey two weeks ago, were asked as People Power Party candidates, the Democratic Party candidates showed a noticeable lead. This suggests that the favorable impression of the individuals is strongly reflected in the support for Prosecutor General Yoon.

In this survey, party support rates were as follows: Democratic Party 34.7%, People Power Party 24.8%, Justice Party 5.4%, People Party 7.1%, Open Democratic Party 4.9%, with the proportion of non-affiliated voters at 20.8%. In Seoul, the Democratic Party had 34.9% and the People Power Party 24.7%, similar to the national average. In the PK region, the Democratic Party had 31.9% and the People Power Party 28.5%, with the Democratic Party slightly ahead within the margin of error.

The response rate for this survey was 11.4%, and the sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.