[The Editors' Verdict] Seoul Mayoral By-election: The Candidate Will Decide the Outcome

Park Sang-byeong, Political Commentator

As the regular National Assembly session is coming to an end, the political landscape for the by-elections in April next year is gradually unfolding. Interest from both inside and outside the political sphere is high, and the rush of candidates continues. From lesser-known figures outside the National Assembly to prominent mid-level lawmakers with broad public appeal, many stand out. Since the by-elections are still more than four months away, it is difficult to predict the advantages and disadvantages. Moreover, given the nature of by-elections, it is unlikely that the outcome will be decided solely by 'organizational votes' as in the past, even though voter turnout is not expected to be high. The era of elections dominated by organizational votes is over. Instead of large organizational votes, the choice of the expanded centrist and floating voter groups is now more likely to determine the outcome.

In Korean electoral politics, the prevailing factors have usually been the political framework and issues. This is why the 'frame strategy' still works. When combined with specific issues, the conditions for victory are met. Of course, policies and candidates are also important variables, but their impact has clear limits. Occasionally, unexpected variables have emerged, leading to elections driven by a 'wave,' but such cases are rare. As time passes and the political competence of the public grows, unexpected variables tend to diminish. Due to COVID-19, policy variables are unlikely to be decisive in next year’s Seoul mayoral by-election. Although public anger over real estate issues is high, the difficulty in finding alternatives raises doubts about whether this will emerge as a core issue. Therefore, the focus will inevitably be on frames and candidates.

The frame strategy is expected to exert considerable influence in next year’s by-elections as well. If issues like prosecution reform and the Gadeokdo Airport matter in Busan combine with specific frames, their destructive power could be even greater. However, it remains unclear which frames either the ruling or opposition parties will adopt. It is possible that the elections might be held without any clear frame. If neither party enjoys public support in this major election during the fifth year of the administration, the frame strategy itself will be difficult to implement. In such a case, the contest may ultimately come down to a 'candidate' battle. Even if a frame is formed, the importance of the candidate in solidifying or dissolving that frame is very high. If the entire political sphere is met with indifference or cynicism, then ultimately, the only thing to trust is the 'person.'

So, what kind of candidate is preferable? The side with fewer veto groups rather than stronger base support has the advantage because it can attract the floating centrist group. In this case, candidates with high popularity or mid-level seniority have little appeal. In fact, they are too predictable. This means they likely have many veto groups. While this might be acceptable in party primaries, in the general election, such candidates tend to be dismissed as old-fashioned. Moreover, 'morality' will demand higher expectations than in any previous election. The 'Park Won-soon effect,' the tedious conflicts between Choo Mi-ae and Yoon Seok-youl, and the arrogant and insolent Democratic Party, along with the People Power Party, which has not changed much since its crushing defeat in the last general election, have heightened the public’s thirst for a 'decent person.'

The 'power of morality' still lives in Korean politics. Although it has often been neglected amid frames and issues, the underlying public sentiment still holds 'hope in people' as a key standard. Morality is at the core. It is not about finding a great or outstanding character. It means that the public can no longer be won over by old-fashioned or unscrupulous figures who divide people whenever they open their mouths or pursue private interests under the guise of public good. The outside world is increasingly chaotic, and public sentiment is unsettled. In a world of fish eyes mixed with pearls (eomokhonju), where it is difficult to distinguish truth from falsehood, who is right and who is fake, the public is exhausted.

The Democratic Party still has many candidates. However, the People Power Party, as the challenger, appears impoverished and even shabby. Old-fashioned figures who the public wishes would just stop are creeping back. The absurd characters who have been judged multiple times outside of common sense are ranting and spouting sophistry. It is baffling how there can be so few decent people. Of course, next year’s by-elections require attention to frames, issues, and policies. However, this time, the People Power Party must not forget that 'people' are more important.