Mosen Parkrizade, National Mourning Atmosphere in Iran
Turning Point in Biden Administration's Iran Policy
Iran at a Crossroads Between Negotiation and Revenge Choices
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh has triggered rapid changes in the global situation, including the Middle East. With the Biden administration set to take office in January next year, there are forecasts that the way this terror incident is resolved could lead to a vicious cycle of retaliation, starting from the United States' participation in the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
According to the British daily The Guardian on the 29th (local time), Iran is preparing for Fakhrizadeh's funeral. The Iranian government is receiving condolences by moving Fakhrizadeh's body, covered with the Iranian flag and flowers, to a major Iranian shrine.
Fakhrizadeh was killed on the 27th in a bomb and rifle attack on a highway near Tehran. Although his bodyguards protected him at the time, all the bodyguards were killed. It is known that remotely controlled automatic rifles were used at the assassination site.
Although no group has claimed responsibility for the assassination, Iran is almost certain to suspect Israel. Fakhrizadeh was a figure who led Iran's nuclear development from the early 2000s and was considered Iran's top nuclear scientist. Israel currently views a military attack on Iran as imminent and has raised its military readiness.
Voices within Iran demanding retaliation against Israel are already growing strong. Not only the Iranian leadership but also the Iranian media are calling for direct military retaliation against Israel. Additionally, it is anticipated that overseas militias supported by Iran may also launch retaliatory attacks against Israel.
The Iranian government stated, "Criminals do not regret without strong counteractions," signaling a strong response.
The Guardian and others have speculated that the timing of this attack was intended by Israel, with the support of U.S. President Donald Trump, to shake the Middle East strategy of President-elect Joe Biden. Israel has been concerned about the possibility of the U.S. participating in the JCPOA, as Biden has indicated during the election and elsewhere. Both the U.S. tolerating Iran's nuclear development and lifting sanctions are threats to Israel.
Barack Obama, Trump's predecessor, lifted sanctions on Iran in 2015 through the JCPOA, guaranteeing Iran's peaceful nuclear development while restraining weapons development. President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, arguing that the agreement could not prevent Iran's threat, and increased sanctions on Iran.
Iran is forced to choose between retaliating, mindful of the worsening public opinion, or strategically exercising patience. If Iran retaliates, the possibility of sanctions easing or lifting with the Biden administration's inauguration will be significantly reduced. Conversely, if Iran chooses strategic patience, it will be difficult to suppress backlash from hardliners within Iran.
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