382 COVID-19 Cases Confirmed... At This Rate, 'Level 2.5' Soon

New Cases Near 400
n-th Transmission and Cluster Infections Surge
Seasonal Factors Also Contribute
Capital Region Accounts for 70% of Domestic Cases

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] On the 25th, the number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) reached 382, approaching 400, heightening the sense of crisis over the 'third wave' to its peak. In the past week, the number of new confirmed cases recorded was in the 300s every day except on the 23rd, when testing decreased over the weekend.

Although it has not yet surpassed the record high of 441 new cases during the 'second wave' in August, some forecasts suggest that this record will be exceeded if the current trend continues. This is due to ongoing n-th generation transmissions derived from existing cluster outbreaks, as well as a rapid increase in group infections at family and acquaintance gatherings and multi-use facilities. Additionally, seasonal factors that favor the virus's spread are coinciding, quickly fulfilling the conditions for raising social distancing to level 2.5.

Above all, the spread in the densely populated Seoul metropolitan area is fierce. On this day, the metropolitan area reported 255 cases?139 in Seoul, 77 in Gyeonggi, and 39 in Incheon?accounting for 70% of all domestic cases. The number of new cases in the metropolitan area has remained in the 200s for six consecutive days since the 20th. Although social distancing was raised to level 2 just five days after being elevated to 1.5 in the metropolitan area, the spread is progressing uncontrollably.

Five confirmed cases occurred at Asan Medical Center in Seoul, and n-th generation transmissions are spreading in everyday places such as the Noryangjin academy cluster in Dongjak-gu, Seoul (88 cases), a high school in Dongdaemun-gu, a church in Mapo-gu (99 cases), two saunas in Seocho-gu (85 cases), a kids' cafe in Yongin, Gyeonggi (73 cases), and a nightlife establishment in Yeonsu-gu, Incheon (27 cases).

Weekly Average of 316 Domestic Cases
Concerns Over ICU Bed Shortage in the Metropolitan Area

Double-digit confirmed cases are also occurring in non-metropolitan regions. Busan and Chungnam reported 18 cases, Gwangju 14, Gangwon 12, Gyeongnam 10, and Jeonbuk and Jeonnam each 8 new cases. Experts believe that if the current trend continues, raising the alert to nationwide level 2.5 is not far off. The weekly average of domestic cases recently reached 316, already exceeding 300.

The conditions for raising to level 2.5 include having 400 to 500 or more nationwide cases or a rapid increase such as doubling of cases. Up to level 2, the response is regionally focused based on local outbreaks, but from level 2.5, nationwide measures are implemented. High-risk facilities like karaoke rooms are prohibited from gathering, and religious activities switch to non-face-to-face formats, raising the level of quarantine measures.

The health authorities stated that since the metropolitan area entered level 2 before the effects of level 1.5 could take hold, they are not yet considering applying level 2 nationwide or raising to level 2.5, but the need for preemptive measures is growing. Joo Young-soo, head of the COVID-19 joint response situation room, said, "Based on the trend of cases over the past two weeks, there is a high possibility that beds will be exhausted within a week," adding, "There are 125 COVID-19 ICU beds in the metropolitan area (as of the 23rd), of which only about 25 remain available."

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital expressed concern, saying, "The number of infections increases rapidly after reaching a tipping point, so it is important to stop the spread before reaching that point," and added, "While the number of confirmed cases in the metropolitan area increased, hesitation in raising to level 1.5 has now put us in a position to prepare for level 2.5."