[Square] Achievements Wang Yi Should Gain from Minister Wang Yi's Visit to Korea

Wang Yi, the chief architect of China's diplomacy and State Councilor and Foreign Minister, is arriving in Seoul tonight via Tokyo, Japan, overcoming COVID-19. Domestic and international media view this visit as an attempt to preemptively weaken the trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, which is expected to strengthen after the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration in January next year. While this analysis is somewhat accurate, in reality, China is approaching this with more strategic considerations.

China regards the upcoming four years of Biden's administration as a strategic turning point. If Biden revives the previous global leadership centered on values, alliances, and multilateralism, the vitality of U.S. leadership will be extended; however, if the 'Trump' policies continue, the decline of U.S. leadership will become evident. China is inwardly confident that it has a chance as a rite of passage in its rise as a great power. Even if united, China faces a tough challenge, while the U.S. is divided and China is united. Although it is unclear how coordinated China’s actions will be, even if allies gather under Biden’s banner, they will all be cautious at the forefront of anti-China efforts.

Outwardly, it seems like the U.S. is attacking and China is defending (美攻中守), but in fact, it is the U.S. defending and China attacking (美守中攻). The U.S. is in a defensive position, and defense is always difficult. In boxing, even if the attacking player keeps hitting, if there are no effective hits, the defensive player with strong resilience wins. Although the side that endures for a short time has the advantage, China still sees many weaknesses in itself and believes it has a long way to go. Following the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China’s intention to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a typical counterattack that catches the U.S. off guard.

In this process, South Korea is a country that China definitely wants to pull closer. It is a successful advanced economy, democracy, and a country that has succeeded in epidemic control, as well as a key U.S. ally. China tries not to provoke South Korea unnecessarily. Excessive provocation would have the opposite effect of pushing South Korea closer to the U.S. Therefore, during Wang Yi’s visit, China will emphasize cooperation instead of raising sensitive issues. In fact, just emphasizing cooperation is enough for China to convey its message. If South Korea does not destabilize bilateral relations for the sake of cooperation and at least refrains from anti-China actions, this visit will be a success.

Since the Moon Jae-in administration took office, South Korea’s value has been high for the second time, following 2018. The first time was during the 'Panmunjom Declaration' in 2018. At that time, we were filled with the joy of successfully holding the inter-Korean summit and a romantic confidence that we could continue to lead. However, the trilateral or quadrilateral discussions involving South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., and China caused China to misunderstand this as being 'passed over.' China applauded but became passive in advancing the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The second time is this year. While the international community criticized China for its responsibility in COVID-19, South Korea supported China’s efforts to overcome it. Even amid Trump’s attacks on China, South Korea did not become hostile toward China. Following Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau, in August, Wang Yi, the other head of Chinese diplomacy, is visiting South Korea today. However, the environment is rapidly changing, making it difficult for us to enjoy this situation. If China’s major crisis ends or a North Korea-related crisis occurs, we will become vulnerable to China again.

If China’s stance toward South Korea is not '(You are my) destiny' but '(global) community' within the community of shared future for mankind, I hope this visit by Wang Yi will be used as an opportunity to redefine Korea-China relations. Although the two countries agreed on a substantive strategic cooperative partnership in 2017, what constitutes 'substantive strategic cooperation' remains unclear. We expect the following outcomes from Wang Yi’s visit.

First, three areas of 'strategic cooperation': cooperation to create a better security environment, a more developed economic environment, and a safer non-traditional security environment. Next, the establishment of four mechanisms: a crisis prevention and management mechanism at the Blue House level, a 2+2 high-level strategic dialogue mechanism on diplomacy and economy at the government level, a military trust mechanism through non-traditional security cooperation at the military level, and a communication mechanism between political leaderships at the party level.

In particular, party-level communication is the driving force for substantive cooperation. Although the strategic cooperative partnership agreed upon by South Korea and China has expanded to economic, cultural, and diplomatic areas, a stagnation in relationship development has occurred due to differences in understanding in security and military fields. To establish a new type of Korea-China relationship, communication with the Chinese Communist Party is absolutely necessary. As a new approach, I hope a communication mechanism between the political leaderships of the parties will be established during this visit.

Hwang Jae-ho, Professor, Department of International Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies