Cabinet Reshuffle Timing and Targets, Political Interest... Public Official Election Act Allows Ministers Running in By-Elections to Resign by March 8 Next Year
[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] A shift in the atmosphere is being detected regarding the Blue House's 'cabinet reshuffle' announcement. Although there had been expectations that the reshuffle would take place as early as the end of November, the trend now seems to be one of 'taking a breather.' Specifically, while there are predictions that the reshuffle might occur on the 27th, there are also analyses suggesting it may be postponed beyond November.
Just as President Moon Jae-in appointed former Democratic Party lawmaker Kang Chang-il as the new ambassador to Japan on the 23rd, additional personnel changes regarding ambassadors may occur within this month, but it is also possible that ministerial replacements or Blue House reorganization could be delayed until after December.
A Blue House official expressed caution, saying, "The cabinet reshuffle can only be known on the day it happens." Another Blue House official also refrained from commenting, stating, "We have no information about the reshuffle."
The reason Blue House personnel are taking a cautious stance is that, regardless of the preparation status at the working level, the outcome can change depending on the president's 'political and administrative judgment.' It is also noteworthy that if the reshuffle takes place this time, there is a high possibility that the president will be wrapping up his term.
The reason why the possibility of personnel changes at the end of November intensified is closely related to the Seoul mayoral by-election scheduled for April 7 next year. Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun and Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae are being mentioned as strong candidates for the ruling party, regardless of their own will. Since politicians who are former ministers must step down from their posts in advance to prepare for the Seoul mayoral election, there have been ongoing predictions that the personnel announcement is imminent.
According to the National Election Commission, preliminary candidate registration for the Seoul mayoral by-election begins on December 8, which is 120 days before the election. Individuals intending to run for Seoul mayor can effectively participate in the election as preliminary candidates from this point onward.
Article 53 of the Public Official Election Act requires public officials to resign from their positions at least 90 days before the election day (January 7 next year for the Seoul mayoral election). Public officials who can become members of political parties (such as former ministers who are politicians) have different resignation deadlines.
If they run in the 'by-election,' they must resign by 30 days before the election (March 8 next year), not 90 days prior.
The issue of ministers running for Seoul mayor is one of the variables in the cabinet reshuffle, but it is difficult to see this as a situation that necessitates rushing the personnel changes. The cabinet reshuffle reflects political messages not only in the selection of candidates but also in the timing of the announcement.
Although there is some leeway in the schedule according to election laws, it is unlikely that the reshuffle will be indefinitely postponed. In the Yeouido political circles, rumors about ministerial positions continue. While there may be changes in the timing of the reshuffle, the atmosphere is already ripe.
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