People Power Party Support Recovers to 30%... Reverses Against Democratic Party in Seoul and PK [Realmeter]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] The support rate for the People Power Party has risen to the 30% range, closely trailing the Democratic Party within the margin of error. Notably, in both Seoul and the PK region (Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam), where the by-elections will be held next April, the People Power Party was found to be ahead of the Democratic Party. President Moon Jae-in's approval rating for his administration has dropped to the low 40% range, showing figures similar to those during the 'Cho Kuk incident.'

According to Realmeter, which conducted a public opinion poll commissioned by YTN from the 16th to the 20th, the party support rates were 32.1% for the Democratic Party, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week, and 30.0% for the People Power Party, up 2.7 percentage points, as announced on the 23rd. The gap between the two parties is 2.1 percentage points, within the margin of error (±2.0%). Support rates for other parties were Open Democratic Party 5.9%, Justice Party 5.5%, Basic Income Party 1.1%, and Transition Korea 0.5%, respectively.

The People Power Party's support rate rising to the 30% range is the first time in seven weeks since the fifth week of September (31.2%). The increase was driven by rises in Honam region (up 5.7 percentage points), Incheon-Gyeonggi (up 5.1 percentage points), women (up 3.7 percentage points), those aged 70 and above (up 8.1 percentage points), those in their 20s (up 6.8 percentage points), and labor workers (up 5.2 percentage points).

On the other hand, the Democratic Party has maintained a 30% range for 12 consecutive weeks since the fourth week of August (40.4%). This week saw significant declines among those in their 60s (down 4.9 percentage points), 50s (down 2.7 percentage points), and students (down 5.2 percentage points).

In Seoul and PK, where the by-elections will be held next April, the People Power Party showed an advantage over the Democratic Party. In Seoul, the People Power Party recorded 28.7%, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Party's 28.1% by 0.6 percentage points, and in PK, it regained the lead with a support rate of 32.2% compared to the Democratic Party's 29.1%.

The conflicts between Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, the controversy over the new airport in Gadeokdo, and the spread of the jeonse crisis are analyzed to have influenced the support rates of both parties.

President Moon's approval rating for his administration fell 1.6 percentage points from the previous week to 42.7%. Negative evaluations rose 2.0 percentage points to 53.0%. The gap between positive and negative evaluations is 10.3 percentage points.

This double-digit gap in positive and negative evaluations is the first since the second week of October last year (14.7 percentage points), when the 'Cho Kuk incident' was at its peak. At that time, President Moon's approval rating was the lowest since his inauguration (41.4%).

President Moon's approval rating saw significant declines in Incheon-Gyeonggi (down 6.6 percentage points), Seoul (down 3.5 percentage points), those in their 50s (down 5.0 percentage points), and those in their 20s (down 4.1 percentage points).

This survey contacted 67,642 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, with a final 2,514 respondents completing the survey, recording a response rate of 3.7%. The sampling error is ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.