[Agyeong Poll] Lee Nak-yeon 42.3% vs Yoon Seok-yeol 42.5%... Clear 'Yoon Concentration' in Opposition Support

Yoon Leads by 0.2%P Within Margin of Error
Personal Preferences Reflect More Than Parties
Conservative Base Appears Fully United
Narrowly Trailing Lee Jae-myung in Head-to-Head Matchup

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, emerging as a leading presidential candidate, showed a close race within the margin of error in virtual matchups against prominent ruling party candidates.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 15th to 16th, surveying 1,000 voters nationwide aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), in a virtual contest between Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Prosecutor General Yoon, Lee recorded 42.3%, while Yoon recorded 42.5%. The results showed a nearly tied situation within the margin of error, but it was notable that Yoon slightly led Lee, who is regarded as a leading presidential candidate of the ruling party. In the matchup against Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, Lee Jae-myung led narrowly with 42.6% to Yoon’s 41.9%, also showing a close contest within the margin of error.

This rapid rise of Prosecutor General Yoon appears to reflect personal favorability toward him regardless of party support. Since Yoon is not affiliated with any political party and the results exceeded the support level for the People Power Party, this indicates his individual appeal. During the same period, Win-G Korea’s poll showed the Democratic Party’s party support at 34.9%, the People Power Party’s at 24.9%, and independents at 18.8%. Yoon’s increased attention as a public figure, especially after attending the recent National Assembly audit and taking a stance against the current government, seems to have triggered a strong 'bandwagon' effect among voters.

By party support, among Democratic Party supporters, Lee Nak-yeon had 83.1% support while Yoon had 7.0%, showing a large gap. Conversely, among People Power Party supporters, Yoon had 88.2% support while Lee had 5.2%. It appears that conservative supporters have fully rallied behind Yoon.

Lee Nak-yeon’s lower party support compared to Yoon is analyzed to be due to competition with Lee Jae-myung. In the virtual contest between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon, among Democratic Party supporters, Lee Jae-myung had 73.8% support while Yoon had 10.4%. However, among People Power Party supporters, Yoon had 86.5% support and Lee Jae-myung had 6.5%. Among Democratic Party supporters, Lee Nak-yeon was preferred over Lee Jae-myung. If Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung unify, there is a possibility of vote leakage from the hardline faction within the Democratic Party, which could become a variable.

Among the 'swing voters' in the independent group, Lee Jae-myung was preferred over Lee Nak-yeon. In the virtual contest between Lee Nak-yeon and Yoon, Lee Nak-yeon had 15.1% support and Yoon had 49.6%, while in the contest between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon, Lee Jae-myung had 24.6% and Yoon had 44.2%.

By age group, Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung had higher support among those in their 30s and 40s, while Yoon had higher support among those aged 60 and above. In the virtual contest between Lee Nak-yeon and Yoon, Lee Nak-yeon had 59.0% support among 40s and 49.5% among 30s, while Yoon had 60.3% among 60s and 58.7% among those aged 70 and above. In the contest between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon, Lee Jae-myung had 58.1% support among 40s and 52.1% among 30s, while Yoon had 59.7% among 60s and 58.7% among those aged 70 and above.

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and over from the 15th to 16th, with an overall response rate of 24.1%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.