[AK Opinion Poll] Ruling Party Leads People Power Party in Support in Seoul and PK... President Moon at 51.4%

Gadeokdo New Airport Promotion Responds to Public Sentiment
President Moon, 6.2%p Gap Between Supporters and Non-Supporters

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] In the Seoul, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) regions, where by-elections will be held next April, the Democratic Party of Korea shows support levels slightly ahead of the People Power Party within the margin of error. The 'political' support for President Moon Jae-in was found to be ahead of non-support beyond the margin of error.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 15th to 16th, surveying 1,000 adults aged 18 and over nationwide (100% mobile phone, automated response), the Democratic Party's support was 34.9%, and the People Power Party's support was 24.9%. The gap between the two parties' support was 10.0 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (±3.09%).

By region, Gwangju and Jeolla showed an absolute dominance for the Democratic Party (62.3%), while Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK) showed an absolute dominance for the People Power Party (42.5%). In Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong, the Democratic Party (33.2%) held a slight lead over the People Power Party (23.2%), and in Incheon and Gyeonggi regions, the Democratic Party (38.4%) also led the People Power Party (23.4%).

Especially in Seoul, considered a key battleground for the by-elections next April, the Democratic Party recorded 31.5%, leading the People Power Party (25.8%) within the margin of error.

In the PK region, where the Busan mayoral election will be held, the Democratic Party led with 31.9% over the People Power Party's 28.9%. This is interpreted as being significantly influenced by the Democratic Party's active push for the construction of the new airport on Gadukdo Island.

Support for other parties outside the two major parties was as follows: Justice Party 5.3%, People Party 7.3%, Open Democratic Party 6.1%. The proportion of undecided voters was 18.8%.

Regarding political support for President Moon, 51.4% responded that they support him, while 45.2% responded that they do not. The gap between support and non-support was 6.2 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

By age group, those in their 40s showed the highest support at 71.0%. More than half of respondents in their 30s (57.7%) and 50s (51.5%) also supported President Moon. Support among those aged 18-29 was 48.5%, nearly equal to the 46.7% who did not support him. Support among those in their 60s (38.2%) and 70 and older (34.1%) was well below average.

By region, 74.8% in Gwangju and Jeolla responded that they support him, and more than half in Incheon and Gyeonggi (57.2%) and Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (53.2%) also showed support. In Seoul (48.4%), support was below half, and relatively low support was also seen in Gangwon and Jeju (43.9%), PK (40.4%), and TK (34.1%).

By party support, 93.4% of Democratic Party supporters responded that they support President Moon, while 77.9% of People Power Party supporters responded that they do not support him.

This survey was conducted from the 15th to 16th among voters aged 18 and over nationwide, with an overall response rate of 24.1%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.