[AKYUNG Poll] Head-to-Head Matchup, Lee Jae-myung 42.6% vs Yoon Seok-youl 41.9% · Lee Nak-yeon 42.3% vs Yoon Seok-youl 42.5%

Conservative Faction and Government Criticism Seem to Rally Around Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] In a hypothetical two-way race poll for the next presidential election, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol received similar support within the margin of error against Lee Nak-yeon, leader of the Democratic Party, and Lee Jae-myung, governor of Gyeonggi Province. While conservative voters and government critics tend to support Yoon, this suggests that some defections may occur if the ruling party unifies. Regarding the 'Three Lease Laws,' more than half of respondents viewed them as the direct cause of the rental crisis and believed they should be revised.

According to a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 15th to 16th, surveying 1,000 people nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), when asked, "If the next presidential election is a contest between Governor Lee Jae-myung and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, whom would you support?" Governor Lee received 42.6%, and Prosecutor General Yoon 41.9%.

In a hypothetical race between Prosecutor General Yoon and Leader Lee Nak-yeon, Yoon led narrowly with 42.5% compared to Lee's 42.3%.

The margin of error for this survey is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The two-way hypothetical matchups showed a tight race within the margin of error, making it difficult to determine a clear winner.

As suitable presidential candidates from the Democratic Party, Governor Lee Jae-myung (25.1%) slightly led Leader Lee Nak-yeon (22.7%) within the margin of error. Following them were Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (5.9%), Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (3.6%), former Blue House Chief of Staff Lim Jong-seok (1.7%), and Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Kwang-jae (1.1%).

Among the opposition, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol received the highest support at 25.5%, followed by former United Future Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min at 11.0%. Next were independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (10.8%), People's Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (7.6%), former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (6.1%), and People Power Party emergency committee chairman Kim Jong-in (2.5%).

Party support rates were: Democratic Party 34.9%, People Power Party 24.9%, Justice Party 5.3%, People's Party 7.3%, Open Democratic Party 6.1%, with non-affiliated voters at 18.8%. Support for President Moon Jae-in stood at 51.4%, 6.2 percentage points higher than those who responded 'do not support' (45.2%).

Although the People Power Party's party support rate is 10 percentage points lower than the Democratic Party's, Yoon's high support in the hypothetical matchups indicates his strong personal competitiveness. Although Yoon has not explicitly declared his intention to enter politics, his statement that he will "find ways to serve the people and society after retirement" has already positioned him as a leading presidential contender. This is especially reflected in the increased attention and stature he has gained recently by sharply opposing the government.

On the other hand, Democratic Party supporters appear to show some defection in the event of unification. When Leader Lee Nak-yeon faces Yoon in a hypothetical race, 83.1% of Democratic supporters back Lee, while 73.8% support Governor Lee Jae-myung. This seems to reflect some antipathy from pro-Moon factions toward Governor Lee. Meanwhile, among non-affiliated voters, 24.6% supported Governor Lee and 15.1% supported Leader Lee. Even among Democratic supporters, 10.4% (in the hypothetical race against Governor Lee) and 7.0% (against Leader Lee) named Yoon as the next presidential contender.

Regarding the question on "the impact of the Three Lease Laws, including the rent ceiling and contract renewal rights, on the current rise in rental prices and decrease in available properties," 51.9% of respondents believed that the laws are the direct cause of the rental crisis and that the policy has failed, thus requiring revision.

Meanwhile, 14.7% opined that although the laws are the direct cause of the rental crisis, supplementary measures such as expanding public rental housing could address the issue. In total, 66.6% viewed the Three Lease Laws as the direct cause of the rental crisis.

This survey was conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older from the 15th to 16th, with an overall response rate of 24.1%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of October 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The margin of error is ±3.09 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.