[The Editors' Verdict] Restoring a Value-Centered South Korea-U.S. Alliance

Young-gi Cho, Special Professor at the Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University · Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Association, Korea Peninsula Advancement Foundation

The results of the U.S. presidential election remain uncertain, causing a state of confusion. However, it seems unlikely that Democratic candidate Joe Biden will not be inaugurated as the 46th president. The policy direction of the incoming Biden administration is expected to differ in several aspects from the Trump administration, which championed America First. In particular, Biden’s foreign policy is predicted to return to the traditional multilateralism that emphasizes freedom and alliances. First, the top-down North Korean nuclear disarmament negotiation approach between Trump and Kim Jong-un is likely to be reconsidered from scratch. North Korea exploited President Trump’s erratic actions as a means to guarantee “peace while possessing nuclear weapons.” The nuclear-related equipment showcased at last month’s 75th anniversary military parade of the Workers’ Party serves as evidence. This disproves the notion that the U.S. top-down talks were a useful approach for denuclearization. Therefore, the Biden administration is expected to adopt a bottom-up approach, gradually implementing agreements through working-level negotiations. However, it will not repeat Obama’s “strategic patience” policy, which neglected the North Korean nuclear issue.

Furthermore, the “fake peace show” that rode on President Trump’s erratic actions will be discarded. Considering Biden’s track record of emphasizing a “principled response” to the North Korean issue, the likelihood of erratic actions similar to Trump’s appears low. It is somewhat fortunate that the term “end-of-war declaration” disappeared after the South Korean National Security Office chief’s visit to the U.S. last month. Therefore, our government’s plan of “first an end-of-war declaration, then North Korean nuclear disarmament” requires a shift in tone. The devil is in the details for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. These details are a prerequisite for successful negotiations.

President Trump damaged the value of the South Korea-U.S. alliance by mentioning South Korea’s “security free-riding” and raising issues such as the reduction of U.S. troops stationed in Korea and defense cost-sharing. However, Biden’s mention of restoring the alliance damaged during Trump’s tenure will be significantly beneficial for South Korean security. Yet, Biden’s alliance with South Korea is a value-based alliance grounded in geopolitical codes, which inevitably deepens our government’s concerns. This means there is a higher possibility that South Korea will be required to take a clear stance between the U.S. and China, citing the value alliance. In other words, the time is coming when South Korea will be forced to choose between the U.S. and China. Although this was a Trump administration policy, the immediate issues of whether to participate in the anti-China security cooperation Quad (U.S., Japan, Australia, India multilateral security cooperation) and the U.S.-centered economic alliance Economic Prosperity Network (EPN: involving the U.S., Japan, India, Australia, etc., pursuing a decoupling from China strategy) are pressing. Since Biden is expected to strengthen China containment and pressure policies based on multilateralism, these cards seem likely to persist. Moreover, Biden may expand the scope to include traditional allies as well as human rights and environmental issues. Consequently, the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance will inevitably increase.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance has contributed to the prosperity and peace of South Korea and will continue to do so. Of course, the alliance is valuable in that it supplements our insufficient self-reliance capabilities. Especially, the alliance’s role in blocking North Korea’s nuclear threats and controlling China’s expansionist Sinocentrism makes its value and importance impossible to ignore. On the 19th of last month, when China distorted the Korean War as the “June 25th Southern Aggression War” into the “War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea (抗美援朝戰爭)” for justice and peace, the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance was reaffirmed.

Due to the difference in national power between South Korea and the U.S., the alliance is inevitably asymmetrical. This “asymmetry” causes discomfort regarding the alliance. The root of this discomfort is the loss of some autonomy as a nation. South Korea receives security and prosperity benefits from the U.S. in exchange for losing some autonomy. This is called an “autonomy-security exchange alliance.” Particularly, this “autonomy-security exchange alliance” will play a role in restraining China’s hegemonic ambitions.

Therefore, a strategic revision is required for the government’s “security from the U.S., economy from China” dual-track strategy. Also, the government must abandon its obsession with the fake peace show with North Korea and prepare the detailed measures for denuclearization through international cooperation. Hence, the restoration of a value-centered South Korea-U.S. alliance is urgent. Only then can the alliance contribute as a pillar of security and prosperity.

Jo Young-gi, Special Professor at Kookmin University Graduate School of Political Science and Chairman of the Advanced Unification Research Group at the Korea Advanced Institute for the Advancement of the Korean Peninsula