"Moon Administration to Clear 'Anti-American' Misunderstandings and Prepare for 'Bottom-Up' Denuclearization Talks"

Diplomacy and Security on the Korean Peninsula in the 'Biden Era'
"Dialogue Deadlock Inevitable Until US Administration Inauguration... Situation Management Crucial"
"Prompt Biden Summit Needed... Public Diplomacy Role for Congress, Bureaucracy, and Academia"

President Moon Jae-in making a phone call with Giuseppe Conte, Prime Minister of Italy, at the Cheong Wa Dae Yeomin Building on the 20th [Image source=Yonhap News]

As Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, virtually secures victory in the U.S. presidential election, attention is turning to South Korea's policy response on the Korean Peninsula in preparation for the 'Biden era.' Experts advise that President Moon Jae-in and candidate Biden should meet promptly to strengthen ties between the two leaders and dispel unnecessary misunderstandings about the South Korean government within certain circles in Washington. Given that the approach to North Korea-U.S. denuclearization negotiations is expected to shift 180 degrees from a 'top-down' to a 'bottom-up' method, there is an urgent need to devise a meticulous strategy reflecting this change.

First, a detailed analysis of Biden's personal disposition, the Democratic Party's policy direction, and decision-making processes is necessary. Unlike President Donald Trump, Biden is regarded as reasonable, transparent, and predictable. Although there are concerns that former President Barack Obama's 'strategic patience' might be repeated, Biden is seen as someone who can be persuaded through communication.

Shin Beom-chul, Director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said at the 2nd Transmission Forum hosted by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) on the 5th, "From a broad perspective, the first priority should be to expedite a summit meeting," adding, "President Moon should first make a phone call to candidate Biden." He cited the example of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, noting, "Abe flew to the U.S. urgently during Trump's transition period," which positively influenced the early formation of U.S.-Japan relations.

At the same time, it is urgent to clear widespread misunderstandings about the Moon administration within U.S. political circles. Director Shin stated, "There is a perception among U.S. bureaucrats and academia that the Moon administration does not prioritize the South Korea-U.S. alliance," adding, "Whether this perception is true or not, it can put the South Korean government at a disadvantage in shaping relations with the U.S."

Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke on the podium with Vice Presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris on the 5th (local time) in Wilmington, Delaware, where he resides. In the live broadcasted speech, Biden said, "I have no doubt that Kamala Harris and I will be declared the winners once the counting is finished."

Since the denuclearization negotiations, the biggest challenge in North Korea-U.S. relations, are effectively structured as a bottom-up approach of 'working-level talks followed by a summit,' public diplomacy targeting the U.S. Congress, bureaucrats, and expert groups is more crucial than ever. On the 6th, Hong Ik-pyo, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, appeared on CBS Radio and said, "President Biden's policy decisions are made by gathering opinions from think tanks, experts, and bureaucrats in Washington, and ultimately decided by the president's will."

He also predicted that even with a Democratic administration, there would be no return to the 'strategic patience' policy toward North Korea from the Obama era. Hong disclosed details from a recent meeting with Frank Jannuzi, head of the Mansfield Foundation and a former advisor to Biden. He said, "The Obama administration tried to engage North Korea, but early in its term, incidents like the Cheonan sinking, Yeonpyeong Island shelling, and successive nuclear and missile tests prevented momentum for dialogue," adding, "At that time, the South Korean government was conservative under Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, so the U.S. government did not agree to actively intervene."

However, voices also gathered cautioning against impatience in resuming denuclearization talks and advancing inter-Korean relations. Managing the situation, including restraining North Korean provocations through prior coordination between South Korea and the U.S., is considered more important.

Professor Lee Hye-jung of Chung-Ang University proposed ratifying the 'April 27 Panmunjom Declaration' between President Moon and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. She said, "Since the ruling party currently holds a majority, we should start with what is possible, such as ratifying the Panmunjom Declaration," adding, "By institutionalizing this, we can gradually build inter-Korean relations."

There were also calls to change the approach to inter-Korean cooperation in line with North Korea's recent changes. Lee Ki-dong, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "Instead of trying to resolve inter-Korean relations based on what South Korea wants to offer North Korea, it is necessary to consider what North Korea currently desires most and whether it is realistically feasible, then build relations accordingly."

Professor Park Won-gon of Handong University emphasized, "We need to avoid one-sided proposals to North Korea as done so far," adding, "(Negotiations) require pushing and pulling; if we keep only pulling as we do now, it is meaningless. We should not be impatient and push when needed and pull when necessary."