[Agyeong Poll] "Opposition to Democratic Party Seoul Mayor Nomination" 44.6% "Support" 39.3%

56.4% of Men in Their 20s Say "Oppose"
Second Highest After Women Over 70

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jin-young] According to a public opinion survey conducted by Asia Economy targeting Seoul citizens on the 3rd, the majority opinion was that the Democratic Party of Korea should not nominate a candidate for the Seoul mayoral by-election scheduled for next April.

According to the survey commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting, conducted on the 1st and 2nd among 1,000 Seoul citizens aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone, automated response), 44.6% responded that the Democratic Party should not nominate a candidate when asked, "What do you think about the Democratic Party nominating a candidate for Seoul mayor?" Those who said the party should nominate a candidate accounted for 39.3%, with opposition to nomination slightly ahead of support within the margin of error. Those who answered "Don't know" or did not respond accounted for 16.1%.

By age group, opposition was highest among those aged 60 and over. Opposition to nomination was highest among those in their 70s at 55.8%, followed by those in their 60s at 53.7%. Among those in their 40s, known as the so-called 'Post-386' or 'Generation X,' the opposition rate was the lowest at 34.5%, drawing attention.

The opposition vote among males in their 20s, classified as 'I-namja,' is also noteworthy. By gender and age, women aged 70 and over ranked first with 56.8%, followed by 56.4% of males in their 20s opposing the nomination, ranking second. Among males in their 20s, 20.4% supported the nomination, and 23.2% answered "Don't know" or did not respond.

By region, the conservative-leaning southeastern area (Gangnam, Gangdong, Seocho, Songpa) showed the highest opposition at 54.7%, with 30.5% in favor. In the downtown area (Yongsan, Jongno, Jung-gu), where Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon’s constituency is located, support was highest at 47.3%, with opposition at 38.6%.

Among Democratic Party supporters, 81.5% were in favor of nominating a candidate, showing very high support. This aligns with the party’s recent internal vote on the 2nd, where 86.6% of party members supported amending the party constitution to allow candidate nomination. Opposition was 7.6%, and "Don't know" or no response was 10.9%.

The Open Democratic Party, classified as part of the broader ruling coalition, showed a similar trend to the Democratic Party. Among Open Democratic Party supporters, 79.4% supported nomination, while 14.6% opposed it. However, among Justice Party supporters, opposition was somewhat higher. 39.8% opposed nominating a candidate, while 36.9% supported it, showing a divided opinion. Among People Power Party supporters, 89.5% opposed nominating a candidate, with only 1.4% in favor.

This survey was conducted on the 1st and 2nd among men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with an overall response rate of 8.07%, totaling 1,000 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of September 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.